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Over the past 18 months, public concern about the economy has reduced but remains the leading issue for voters, while concern about health has remained fairly constant. Concern about immigration and asylum has risen by 18% points in the last 18 months. Concern about the environment has remained steady throughout this period. In general, MP concerns are similar, but show greater fluctuation than public concern, with larger peaks and troughs in prioritisation of the economy and health.
Despite an all-encompassing cost of living crisis, the Conservatives’ net zero pivot last September, and Labour scrapping its 28 billion green spending target, voters across the political spectrum support net zero by 2050. Only Reform UK is standing on an anti-net zero ticket at the 2024 General Election. Public support for net zero holds steady overall but MP support has fallen slightly in the past 6 months, across both major parties.
Support for net zero is underestimated, both the public and MPs from both major parties underestimate levels of support from voters of their party.
At the same time, the public and MPs support green investment and see renewables as a growth area for the economy.
Renewables remain highly popular across the political spectrum. Support for clean energy is high, especially wind and solar although this support is underestimated. Most people support renewables even at a local level, but this support isn’t unconditional (and early community engagement is crucial). Most people believe renewables, not fossil fuels, are the best way of building the country’s energy security.
Public support for pylons has not changed, and both public and MP perceptions of support are much lower than actual support.
Climate change isn’t a major dividing line for voters: most people want more, not less action on climate. Over the past 18 months, the public have maintained a steady level of support for the UK being ‘one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing’, and a steady 53-54% say that the government should be doing more to address climate change. More say that the cost of not acting is greater than the cost of acting on climate.
MPs show a steady decline in support for UK ambition on climate over the past 18 months, with fewer saying the government should be doing more to address climate change.
Public perceptions of government handling of climate are unfavourable, with voters from all major parties more likely to select negative descriptions like ‘incompetent’, ‘indecisive’ and ‘out of touch with the public’ than positive ones.
The public don’t blame climate policies for the high cost of energy bills, but believe that privatisation of energy companies, prioritisation of energy companies interests, and failure to reform the energy markets are primarily responsible.
Many anti-net zero arguments either land badly, or not at all. The vast majority haven’t heard of anti-net zero narratives like ‘net zero policies will make us colder and poorer’, or ‘we can either fix the climate or fix the economy’, or of misinformation about 15 minute cities. Reform UK voters are a slight exception to the latter, but overall only a small percentage of Reform UK voters have heard of this.
Reform UK’s slogan pitting climate change against the NHS has not reached many ears, with 65% saying they hadn’t heard of it, and of the 18% who had, 10% disagreed.
In terms of media sources consumed in general, BBC and Sky News are popular with both the public and MPs. When it comes to information about decarbonisation, MPs are much more likely to consume information from a variety of sources, including for some the Global Warming Policy Foundation and Net Zero Watch.
Many key planks of net zero are broadly supported by the public, including ramping up renewables, incentives for landlords to install insulation, a tax on frequent flyers and the moratorium on fracking remaining in place.
Voters are sensitive to the costs of climate policies, as they are for all policies. Support is lower if everyone is expected to pay for the cost of polices, regardless of income. But opposition is practical, not ideological: support can be built through ensuring that green policies are fairer to those on lower incomes.
Tackling misconceptions is important where people have concerns about the impacts of climate policies on their lives. Support for phasing out the sale of new petrol & diesel vehicles has gradually nudged into opposition. But when it is emphasised that the second hand market will continue, more people think the policy ‘wont impact them at all’.
There is a window of opportunity to build trust and raise support around policies like Low Traffic Neighbourhoods. Despite being portrayed as divisive, support remains higher than opposition for low traffic neighbourhoods, and many say they don’t know or are undecided, suggesting support can be built with the right engagement approaches.
