Climate Barometer Tracker

Both Labour and Conservative MPs continue to underestimate the majority support there is for the UK’s declared net zero target. When asked what proportion of the UK public they believe SUPPORTS (either strongly or somewhat) the UK’s current plan to achieve Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, MPs’ estimates averaged at 56%, well below the  63% of the public who actually support the target.

Looking beyond the mean of responses, Conservative MPs were found to be more likely to underestimate public support for the target than Labour MPs. 13% of Conservative MPs provided an estimated public support figure in the correct range of 61-70%, compared to 22% of Labour MPs whose response fell into that bracket of actual public support.

More than 3 in 5 Brits support local renewable energy infrastructure projects, but neither MPs nor the public realise how strong that support is, new Climate Barometer polling shows.

There is high in-principle support for a new onshore wind farm (69%), a new solar energy park (73%), and new pylons and power lines for carrying renewable energy (60%), even as those are proposed to be built in people’s local area.

Whilst support for these renewable energy infrastructure projects has remained largely stable since 2022/2023, perception gaps both from the public when it comes to other people in their area and MPs in terms of their constituents do not seem to have reduced over time. 

Moreover, across each renewable project polled, MPs are even more likely to overestimate local opposition than the general public, suggesting that community views are not adequately represented in local discussions.

An overwhelming majority of the public think the UK is not well prepared to deal with climate change impacts and extreme weather, such as flooding, storms and droughts.

The latest Climate Barometer tracker data shows that only 16% agreed with the statement that “The UK is making good progress in terms of adapting to the risks posed by climate change impacts”, while 39% disagreed.

More than two thirds (68%) believed that flooding was “the most pressing to deal with in the UK”. This was followed by concerns about sea level rising and coastal erosion; loss of species, habitats and threats of extinction (both 45%); and severe storms (44%).

Climate Barometer tracker data shows a continuing divergence between Labour and Conservative voters when it comes to support for low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTNs). But the gap between these groups appears to be closing gradually over time due to an increase in support amongst Conservative voters (from 27% to 39%), and a drop in opposition (from 45% to 27%) between October 2023 and 2024.

Climate Barometer tracker data shows that net zero support is underestimated by, within and between the public and MPs. 

The actual level of net zero support amongst the public was 65% from our polling in October 2024. But when we asked people to estimate this, most members of the public (70%) and half of MPs (49%) underestimated the levels of support for net zero amongst the public. 

When it comes to opinion in parliament – actual support for net zero by 2050 was 90% amongst the MPs we polled in October. But this support was underestimated by 93% of the public, as well as by three-quarters of MPs themselves (75%).

Simply put, the 2050 net zero target is much more popular amongst the public and MPs than people think.

This follows previous tracker data showing evidence of underestimated support for net zero.

Climate Barometer tracker data from October 2024 shows that there are clear misperceptions about support and opposition to local-level renewable energy. 

There is a huge perception gap when it comes to onshore wind, for instance. In this wave of polling, 72% of the public told us they would support onshore wind being built in their local area. But only a quarter (25%) thought most people in their local community would support this. 

When we asked MPs about this, just 19% thought more people would support than oppose onshore wind in their constituency, with 39% of MPs believing opposition would exceed support

Similar (although slightly less extreme) perception gaps are seen when we have asked the public and MPs about support for local solar parks, new pylons and power lines carrying renewable energy, and local renewables more widely.

When asked about their personal experiences of climate impacts, large proportions of the public have experienced heat waves, extreme heat, storms, and flooding. Of these, heat is the most commonly experienced climate impact, with almost half of Britons surveyed saying they had personally experienced it.

Only 28% of people surveyed in the Climate Barometer Tracker in April 2024 said that they ‘have never experienced any of these climate events’.

Climate Barometer Tracker data shows that renewable energy is seen as better for the country’s energy security than coal, oil and gas.

On reliability, the public are split, with 41% saying renewables are more, or as reliable as fossil fuels, and 40% of the public seeing fossil fuels as ‘more reliable’.

However, renewables are also seen as cheaper, and more popular with the public.

Climate Barometer survey data shows the range of emotions that the public feel about climate change. Worry (43%) and sadness (20%) are the most frequently felt emotions by the British public overall, with the next most frequently chosen option being ‘I feel no emotion about climate change’.

There are differences in the emotions experienced by different types of voters. Those intending to vote Labour, Lib Dems and Greens felt mostly ‘worried’, ‘sad’, and ‘scared’. Whilst negative, these are active emotional reactions which wider research suggests are associated with engagement with climate change, and support for climate policy (although can also lead to a sense of fatalism).

Those intending to vote Conservative were ‘worried’ as well, but the next most frequently chosen options were ‘hopeful’, ‘no emotions’ and ‘interested’. This somewhat more positive emotional register perhaps reflects greater faith in existing institutions (‘the establishment’) to address the challenge of climate change.

The most frequently selected option for Reform UK voters was ‘I feel no emotions about climate change’. Whilst this certainly indicates a lack of positive engagement with climate change, it also echoes what wider polling has found about the lack of salience of climate change as an issue impacting Reform voters’ electoral choices. It is perhaps more accurate to characterise Reform voters as ‘not interested in’ rather than ‘opposed to’ net zero.

Slightly different patterns can be seen among the seven British segments, where Progressive Activists are much more likely to report anger (30%), and Disengaged Battlers more likely to say they are scared (25%). Established Liberals are among the most hopeful (20%), and Disengaged Traditionalists are the most likely to say they feel no emotions about climate change (36%), followed by Backbone Conservatives (21%).

Climate Barometer tracker data shows that the public are largely accepting of, or feel no particular emotions at all about new local pylons being constructed in their area.

As the plans for Great British Energy are laid out, the UK will see a major grid upgrade to carry renewable energy throughout the country. Our data consistently shows more support than opposition for local pylons and power lines, and this new data tells the same story.

Even so, tacit acceptance of the idea does not mean that the public won’t have legitimate questions about the way in which new infrastructure is carried out. Rather than characterising this as NIMBYism, the concerns of locals need to be taken seriously for a successful transition.

There are dozens of different narratives in circulation about climate change, arguing in favour of climate action and green policies, as well as arguing against them. But which ones actually cut through to the public?

Climate Barometer tracker data shows that narratives that are pro-climate action are being heard and are generally agreed with by the public. Even a striking statistic about emissions inequality (the richest 1% emit twice as much as the poorest 50% combined) has been heard of and agreed with by 48% of the public.

In contrast, statements sometimes made in opposition to net zero and climate action (‘we can either fix the climate or fix the economy’) and key anti-net zero attack lines (‘net zero policies will make us colder and poorer’), or misinformation about 15 minute neighbourhoods are mostly unheard of.

Areas where misinformation is more prevalent include attitudes about electric vehicles (being ‘no more environmentally-friendly than petrol or diesel cars’), and the role of population growth in global carbon emissions.

MPs generally indicate higher exposure to media narratives about climate change, and more Conservative MPs in particular seem to agree with certain statements about the reliability of renewables ‘when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine’, and on the sustainability of electric vehicles.

Conservative MPs are more likely than the general population to read newspapers like the Telegraph, where many of the anti-net zero statements tested in the Climate Barometer tracker can regularly be found.

Majorities of the public across political lines show support for building new pylons carrying renewable energy in their local area. Alongside renewables, this is an area of consensus – even those intending to vote Reform UK, whose climate views can differ from the rest of the British public somewhat, show high levels of support compared to opposition (although notably, they also show the highest level of opposition, at 39%).

Despite the relative public consensus, both the public and MPs tend to underestimate public support for new local pylons. Only 7% of Conservative MPs and 17% of Labour MPs thought their constituents would support the measure.

Climate Barometer tracker data shows rising opposition to phasing out the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2035 (opposition has grown by around 10% over the period of a year).

Levels of support remain stable, if on a slightly downward trend. Rising opposition appears to be driven by negative sentiment among Conservative voters. Support remains higher than opposition among Labour voters.

The public feels that the UK government’s role in high energy bills comes from roughly two areas: one is a failure reform energy market, not transitioning to renewable energy faster, allowing the UK to become too dependent on gas; the second is in privatising energy companies and only looking after the interests of big energy companies. Overall it appears that people understand that the energy system is not working and green initiatives are far from people’s minds on this issue.

Large sections of the public, from across political lines say that UK politicians’ handling of climate change has been more incompetent than competent, more indecisive than decisive, and more out of touch with the public than in touch with the public.

This data was collected in April 2024, following a period of delays to net zero and climate action, with Labour removing its 28 billion green spending target – and prior to that, the rollback of net zero policies by the Conservative party in September.

Despite having concerns about the costs of climate change, and the cost of living, people in the UK have a clear understanding of the trade-offs necessary for climate action. Despite minor shifts, a majority still feel that it will cost too much *not* to tackle climate change now. A smaller percentage (21% in our most recent wave)  say that “it will cost too much to tackle climate change now”.