General Election 2024: Will culture wars win votes?

Although climate and the environment continues to be a top five issue for many voters, it’s unlikely to dominate the election in the way the economy, immigration, security and the NHS will.

This could be taken as a positive, reflecting the broad consensus on the importance of action on climate change, and voters’ support (across the political spectrum) for reaching net zero by 2050.

Another take would be that as global average temperatures rise towards the 1.5 degrees mark, the lack of political urgency around climate change is astonishing.

One person who will try to influence the narrative – albeit from the sidelines – is Nigel Farage, supporting Reform UK in its (isolated) opposition to net zero. But while the party is not projected to win any seats, their strategy is to stoke a sense of division on green policies.

Will climate change culture war tactics win votes, or miss the mark at the General Election?

The consensus on net zero is unchanged in two years

The latest Climate Barometer tracker data, from just before the English local elections, shows that public levels of support for reaching net zero by 2050 don’t show any significant movement over the past two years. Despite an all-encompassing cost of living crisis, and Rishi Sunak’s net zero pivot last September, nothing has really moved the dial.

With the exception of Reform voters, who are outliers in opposing net zero policies, campaigners talking to voters of every party can be confident in this common ground.

This basic starting point is important, and shouldn’t be taken for granted: in many other countries a comparable consensus isn’t in place.

In Sunak’s rainy election announcement, the only reference to net zero was that the Conservatives were proud of putting energy security over “environmental dogma”. No-one likes dogma (and one less positive trend in recent years, following escalating direct action campaigns, is a rising belief that climate activists are also ‘out of touch’ with the public). 

But the contrast between environmental action and energy security doesn’t hold. Most people see energy security and economic growth as more likely to come from renewables than from doubling down on oil and gas.

Don’t take the consensus for granted: stand with public opinion

This broad support is important and needs repeating throughout the election period: climate change is not a ‘wedge issue’ for voters.

But this positive starting point doesn’t mean the consensus extends to every aspect of climate policy – at least, not yet. 

People have concerns about how the costs of the transition will be spread: these concerns should be represented back to politicians (not skipped past). People have reasonable questions about changes to travel patterns in cities, and the building of renewables in the countryside, that have to be taken seriously (not dismissed as NIMBYism). 

Support can be built around each and every aspect of the green transition, but only if people feel heard by the climate movement: this is the best way of ensuring culture war tactics (which are designed to make people feel heard) don’t gain traction.

When the dust settles

Whoever is in power on July 5th, campaigners face a familiar dilemma: shoring up support for government policies versus pushing for greater political ambition. 

This election is unlikely to be ‘won’ by parties’ positions on net zero policies: it isn’t what most people will be basing their decision on. But it won’t be won by reneging on them either: if the next parliament sees a surge in green ambition (whoever is in power), it will be with – not against – the grain of public opinion. 

So long as the terms of the transition are fair, climate can be a vote winner: politicians should feel confident leading from the front.