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Bucking expectations, Rishi Sunak called a General Election for July 4th, sending political parties and climate campaigners alike into a scramble to set the narrative.
Although climate and the environment continues to be a top five issue for many voters, it’s unlikely to dominate the election in the way the economy, immigration, security and the NHS will.
This could be taken as a positive, reflecting the broad consensus on the importance of action on climate change, and voters’ support (across the political spectrum) for reaching net zero by 2050.
Another take would be that as global average temperatures rise towards the 1.5 degrees mark, the lack of political urgency around climate change is astonishing.
One person who will try to influence the narrative – albeit from the sidelines – is Nigel Farage, supporting Reform UK in its (isolated) opposition to net zero. But while the party is not projected to win any seats, their strategy is to stoke a sense of division on green policies.
Will climate change culture war tactics win votes, or miss the mark at the General Election?
The consensus on net zero is unchanged in two years
The latest Climate Barometer tracker data, from just before the English local elections, shows that public levels of support for reaching net zero by 2050 don’t show any significant movement over the past two years. Despite an all-encompassing cost of living crisis, and Rishi Sunak’s net zero pivot last September, nothing has really moved the dial.
With the exception of Reform voters, who are outliers in opposing net zero policies, campaigners talking to voters of every party can be confident in this common ground.
This basic starting point is important, and shouldn’t be taken for granted: in many other countries a comparable consensus isn’t in place.
In Sunak’s rainy election announcement, the only reference to net zero was that the Conservatives were proud of putting energy security over “environmental dogma”. No-one likes dogma (and one less positive trend in recent years, following escalating direct action campaigns, is a rising belief that climate activists are also ‘out of touch’ with the public).
But the contrast between environmental action and energy security doesn’t hold. Most people see energy security and economic growth as more likely to come from renewables than from doubling down on oil and gas.
Don’t take the consensus for granted: stand with public opinion
This broad support is important and needs repeating throughout the election period: climate change is not a ‘wedge issue’ for voters.
But this positive starting point doesn’t mean the consensus extends to every aspect of climate policy – at least, not yet.
People have concerns about how the costs of the transition will be spread: these concerns should be represented back to politicians (not skipped past). People have reasonable questions about changes to travel patterns in cities, and the building of renewables in the countryside, that have to be taken seriously (not dismissed as NIMBYism).
Support can be built around each and every aspect of the green transition, but only if people feel heard by the climate movement: this is the best way of ensuring culture war tactics (which are designed to make people feel heard) don’t gain traction.
When the dust settles
Whoever is in power on July 5th, campaigners face a familiar dilemma: shoring up support for government policies versus pushing for greater political ambition.
This election is unlikely to be ‘won’ by parties’ positions on net zero policies: it isn’t what most people will be basing their decision on. But it won’t be won by reneging on them either: if the next parliament sees a surge in green ambition (whoever is in power), it will be with – not against – the grain of public opinion.
So long as the terms of the transition are fair, climate can be a vote winner: politicians should feel confident leading from the front.
A report from the New Climate Institute finds that the UK has jumped the highest in its league of countries’ performance on tackling climate change, finishing behind only Denmark and the Netherlands.
While no country has performed well enough to qualify as a ‘very high’ performance, the UK’s ranking has been boosted by the new Labour government’s commitments to reduce emissions and roll out renewable energy across the country.
Despite this, the report says “the country is not on track to reach this target despite a significant reduction in 2023. While the coal exit was set for 2024, oil and gas use also need to be phased out…credible plans now only cover
one-third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target“.
Ultimately, whether the UK can remain in its high position depends on whether it can follow through on ambition with effective implementation.
A new study of over 14000 Britons looks at how the British public see the UK’s role on climate action on the global stage. The research finds that the public wants:
In light of the results of the 2024 US election, most Britons want to see the UK either maintain (40%) or strengthen (26%) its commitments to climate change, even if President-elect Trump withdraws the USA from the Paris Agreement again.
MP polling: Is this the greenest parliament ever?
Labour’s first 100 days in office have been critical for crystallising the new government’s agenda on climate. But exactly how green is the new cohort of MPs?