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Renewables have long been far more popular among the public than any form of fossil fuel (coal, oil or gas). But the public’s relationship with fossil fuels, and how far and how fast to phase them out as part of the green transition, takes a bit of unpicking.
There is very little in the way of positive public sentiment about fossil fuels which (in comparison to renewable energy sources) are widely perceived to be finite, insecure, imported, costly and environmentally harmful. But while there’s no ‘love’ for fossil fuels among the public (and plenty of opposition to the profiteering and polluting that comes with oil and gas extraction), a closer read of opinion data shows that continuing investment in oil and gas extraction is often not seen as incompatible with climate targets. Neither is stopping new oil licences – at least not for a consistent majority of the population.
This is the tension that campaigns to stop, or more quickly phase out, fossil fuels have to contend with.
Oil and gas are not popular forms of energy
On the one hand, tracker data from YouGov shows a large majority believe the government is putting too much emphasis on fossil fuels in the energy mix, and twice as many people support banning new oil and gas exploration as oppose it. Our own Climate Barometer tracker data (below) shows that most people see renewables as more reliable and cheaper than fossil fuels, and that there’s more opposition than support among the public for increasing drilling in the North Sea (albeit by a margin of less than 10%).
Climate Barometer tracker data (see figure below) shows that voters – including Conservative voters – are more likely to agree that the best way of ensuring the UK’s energy security is to reduce our use of fossil fuels and instead expand our use of renewable energy (such as wind and solar), rather than increase our domestic supply of oil and gas.
The bad guys?
A majority view the oil and gas industry as unethical. But despite the morality of oil and gas extraction featuring strongly in many campaigns against fossil fuels – and despite the widespread knowledge of energy company profiteering during the gas price crisis – perceptions that the oil and gas industry is behaving unethically have remained fairly stable for several years.
The relative unpopularity of oil is not the same as outright opposition to it. In common with public opinion in other oil-producing nations, there isn’t a straightforward mandate for stopping or banning oil production altogether in the near term. A recent survey of SNP voters by the Stop Cambo campaign group found 45% support a ban on new exploration for oil and gas, but 39% don’t. A poll for the campaign group Global Witness found support for oil and gas extraction rising to 57% among older age groups. A survey by Ipsos in the week following the government’s September 2023 announcement that it will release 100 new oil and gas licences found around 50% of the public believe this will help to reduce Britain’s dependence on other countries for energy.
In other words, overwhelming support for greater investment in renewables does not directly correlate with increasing opposition to oil and gas extraction.
In a reversal of the government’s decision to grant planning permission for a new coal mine near Whitehaven in Cumbria, the High Court ruled that the greenhouse gas emissions of the coal to be burned at the mine had not been taken into account when the decision had been made.
Instead, and echoing the claims of ‘net zero’ airports which don’t include the emissions from flights, consideration had only been given to the emissions released in building and operating the facility.
The High court decision came during the same month that the last of the UK’s coal-fired power stations was closed.
Polling in the weeks leading up the 2024 General Election by the consultancy True North was reported as showing 75% of people supporting North Sea oil & gas – this is a much higher number than would be expected from wider polling. But the wording of the questions asked people to choose between imported oil and domestic oil (not oil vs renewable energy, which is consistently preferred as the best way to reduce the country’s reliance on importing foreign oil and gas).
Polling by Uplift, carried out at a similar time, found that North Sea oil and gas companies are widely considered by most respondents (70%) to benefit more from extraction in the basin than Scotland itself does currently.
Uplift found that SNP voters were the most concerned about climate change, and that 45% of SNP voters thought the UK Government should stop issuing new oil and gas drilling licences in the North Sea, compared with 31% in favour of new licensing.
Previous research with SNP voters also found higher support than opposition for ending licenses to drill in the North sea, and at a British level there’s much more support for renewables than oil and gas. But there isn’t yet a clear majority in favour of ending oil and gas exploration altogether – in Scotland or in Britain.