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Political Leadership

Public First polling: Delays to net zero make a party less electable

27 October 2023

Based on a survey of 2000 people, Public First have argued that a turn against net zero is a risky political maneuver: by testing different combinations of policy propositions with voters (on the environment and more widely) they found that green investment is one of the most universally popular offers across the electorate, and that whilst anti net-zero sentiment doesn’t move the dial much for those who agree it, for those who oppose it, its a significant vote loser. Public First reports that:

Increased investment in renewable sources and new taxes on the largest polluters in a wider policy platform makes a party 14% more electable

Delaying net zero and continued oil and gas drilling in the North Sea in a wider policy platform makes a party 10% less electable

Voters have genuine questions (and in some cases concerns) about how specific green policies will impact their personal finances and day-to-day lives. These questions should be taken seriously by campaigners and politicians alike to build public support.

But as an electoral strategy, this research shows that reducing net zero ambition, backing away from green investment, and failing to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels are vote losers, rather than winners.

Reference article:

  • Source: Public First
  • Author: Seb Wride
  • Date: 26th October 2023

The latest from the Political Leadership timeline:

Wider Context 21st November 2024

UK “biggest climber” on climate action as COP29 heads to a close

A report from the New Climate Institute finds that the UK has jumped the highest in its league of countries’ performance on tackling climate change, finishing behind only Denmark and the Netherlands.

While no country has performed well enough to qualify as a ‘very high’ performance, the UK’s ranking has been boosted by the new Labour government’s commitments to reduce emissions and roll out renewable energy across the country.

Despite this, the report says “the country is not on track to reach this target despite a significant reduction in 2023. While the coal exit was set for 2024, oil and gas use also need to be phased out…credible plans now only cover
one-third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target“.

Ultimately, whether the UK can remain in its high position depends on whether it can follow through on ambition with effective implementation.

  • Source: Climate Change Performance Index
  • Date: 20th November 2024
Opinion Insight 7th November 2024

Britons want the UK to stay committed to climate despite Trump

A new study of over 14000 Britons looks at how the British public see the UK’s role on climate action on the global stage. The research finds that the public wants:

  • Stronger UK leadership on climate change, with climate change as a top foreign policy issue, and the UK to be one of the countries leading the way.
  • The public don’t see climate as distinct from the nation’s overall security, and would like to see a ‘defence +’ approach to foreign policy which is broader than only military defense, but which also takes into account climate, energy, food and water security.

In light of the results of the 2024 US election, most Britons want to see the UK either maintain (40%) or strengthen (26%) its commitments to climate change, even if President-elect Trump withdraws the USA from the Paris Agreement again.

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