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There isn’t much trust or pride in political leaders, but the public expects political leadership on climate change nonetheless.
Polls consistently show that the British public expects to see leadership from politicians on climate change, placing the responsibility for climate change at the feet of politicians over the private sector or individuals.
Our own Climate Barometer tracker data shows that voters and MPs agree that the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing. This has dropped by around 10% in 2023 for both the public and politicians, but support still comfortably outweighs opposition.
Wider polling suggests people tend to think that Britain is either doing about the same as, or more than, other countries on climate change – but a similar number say they don’t know. But few are persuaded by the argument that Britain is taking risks by ‘acting alone’.
In the run-up to COP26 – held in Glasgow and positioned as a demonstration of British climate leadership – there was a small but meaningful increase in optimism about climate change as the conference progressed. So although there is a tendency for MPs to underestimate the salience and breadth of support for climate action, visible and consistent leadership on climate can cascade positively back into public opinion.
In terms of being a persuasive argument for accelerating the net zero transition, though, invoking British leadership falls increasingly flat – likely reflecting wider dissatisfaction with the political establishment and the sense shared by many that things are headed in the ‘wrong direction’.
In our Climate Barometer tracker data (below), the argument that British climate leadership can be a source of national pride is generally unpersuasive: grand claims like this do not currently resonate with a general public that views climate (like so many issues) through an ‘anti-politics’ lens.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean that the public doesn’t want and expect political leadership on climate change, simply that politicians making strong claims to political leadership are not seen as credible in the context of politicians failing to keep their promises.
In fact, polling suggests that people feel ‘embarrassed’ by politicians who backtrack on green policies, and that the word most commonly selected by the public to describe politicians watering down net zero commitments is ‘untrustworthy’.
‘Net zero’ has made national headlines in September, with an Energy Security and Net Zero committee report recommending that the government stop talking about net zero, to Prime Minister Andy Burnham reaffirming the policy, a few hours later, explicitly stating the need for the UK to reach net zero by 2050.
Our latest data shows that holding steady is the right move, with net zero still receiving majority support among the public and MPs, and even trending upward slightly.
While it is clear that ‘net zero’ is not the most compelling communications phrase, it is also apparent that the public understand and are willing to support it, especially when linked back to its purpose, to address climate change. Rather than ditching the term, our work suggests that talking about the government’s net zero target is best done when connected to compelling reasons ‘why’, and clear explanations for ‘how’ it can be achieved.
New MP polling as Burnham enters Number 10
As Andy Burnham takes office as Prime Minister, our latest wave of MP data reveals that most remain firmly behind climate policies.