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There isn’t much trust or pride in political leaders, but the public expects political leadership on climate change nonetheless.
Polls consistently show that the British public expects to see leadership from politicians on climate change, placing the responsibility for climate change at the feet of politicians over the private sector or individuals.
Our own Climate Barometer tracker data shows that voters and MPs agree that the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing. This has dropped by around 10% in 2023 for both the public and politicians, but support still comfortably outweighs opposition.
Wider polling suggests people tend to think that Britain is either doing about the same as, or more than, other countries on climate change – but a similar number say they don’t know. But few are persuaded by the argument that Britain is taking risks by ‘acting alone’.
In the run-up to COP26 – held in Glasgow and positioned as a demonstration of British climate leadership – there was a small but meaningful increase in optimism about climate change as the conference progressed. So although there is a tendency for MPs to underestimate the salience and breadth of support for climate action, visible and consistent leadership on climate can cascade positively back into public opinion.
In terms of being a persuasive argument for accelerating the net zero transition, though, invoking British leadership falls increasingly flat – likely reflecting wider dissatisfaction with the political establishment and the sense shared by many that things are headed in the ‘wrong direction’.
In our Climate Barometer tracker data (below), the argument that British climate leadership can be a source of national pride is generally unpersuasive: grand claims like this do not currently resonate with a general public that views climate (like so many issues) through an ‘anti-politics’ lens.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean that the public doesn’t want and expect political leadership on climate change, simply that politicians making strong claims to political leadership are not seen as credible in the context of politicians failing to keep their promises.
In fact, polling suggests that people feel ‘embarrassed’ by politicians who backtrack on green policies, and that the word most commonly selected by the public to describe politicians watering down net zero commitments is ‘untrustworthy’.
In a widely anticipated move, the new Labour government announced reforms to the planning system which make the development of onshore wind farms easier (the previous Conservative government had a def-facto ‘ban’ in place).
Onshore wind is a very popular form of energy, which people across the political spectrum support. Whilst reforms of the planning system remove an important barrier to the development of onshore wind farms, early (and inclusive) community engagement is also a critical piece of the puzzle.
YouGov carried out polling just after the July 4th General Election, focused on the planning reforms Labour had announced. Whilst building houses on the ‘green belt’ provoked across-the-board opposition, building green infrastructure was widely popular:
Six in ten (60%) Britons favour ending the current ban in England on building new onshore wind farms, with more strongly supporting such an overturn (30%) than opposing it to any degree (23%). Not only can this policy count on the support of at least half of all groups, it is the most popular of Labour’s proposed reforms among Conservative voters, with 54% in favour of scrapping the ban.
Labour won a large majority in the 2024 General Election, increasing the number of Labour MPs in Parliament to 412. The Labour win was delivered on an historically low turnout, and via a small rise in Labour’s vote share compared to 2019.
The result ushers in a government that will be (relatively) bolder on climate and net zero policy, compared to the outgoing Conservative government, who sustained their worst ever electoral defeat. Parliament now has a number of new pro-climate MPs, not only in Labour but in the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party (both of which saw surges in their vote share). Reform UK, the only party standing on an anti-net zero ticket, also saw a surge in support.
What do MPs need to know about voters’ views on climate?
In the wake of the 2024 General Election results, what do MPs need to bear in mind in terms of voters’ climate opinions?