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There isn’t much trust or pride in political leaders, but the public expects political leadership on climate change nonetheless.
Polls consistently show that the British public expects to see leadership from politicians on climate change, placing the responsibility for climate change at the feet of politicians over the private sector or individuals.
Our own Climate Barometer tracker data shows that voters and MPs agree that the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing. This has dropped by around 10% in 2023 for both the public and politicians, but support still comfortably outweighs opposition.
Wider polling suggests people tend to think that Britain is either doing about the same as, or more than, other countries on climate change – but a similar number say they don’t know. But few are persuaded by the argument that Britain is taking risks by ‘acting alone’.
In the run-up to COP26 – held in Glasgow and positioned as a demonstration of British climate leadership – there was a small but meaningful increase in optimism about climate change as the conference progressed. So although there is a tendency for MPs to underestimate the salience and breadth of support for climate action, visible and consistent leadership on climate can cascade positively back into public opinion.
In terms of being a persuasive argument for accelerating the net zero transition, though, invoking British leadership falls increasingly flat – likely reflecting wider dissatisfaction with the political establishment and the sense shared by many that things are headed in the ‘wrong direction’.
In our Climate Barometer tracker data (below), the argument that British climate leadership can be a source of national pride is generally unpersuasive: grand claims like this do not currently resonate with a general public that views climate (like so many issues) through an ‘anti-politics’ lens.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean that the public doesn’t want and expect political leadership on climate change, simply that politicians making strong claims to political leadership are not seen as credible in the context of politicians failing to keep their promises.
In fact, polling suggests that people feel ‘embarrassed’ by politicians who backtrack on green policies, and that the word most commonly selected by the public to describe politicians watering down net zero commitments is ‘untrustworthy’.
A report from the New Climate Institute finds that the UK has jumped the highest in its league of countries’ performance on tackling climate change, finishing behind only Denmark and the Netherlands.
While no country has performed well enough to qualify as a ‘very high’ performance, the UK’s ranking has been boosted by the new Labour government’s commitments to reduce emissions and roll out renewable energy across the country.
Despite this, the report says “the country is not on track to reach this target despite a significant reduction in 2023. While the coal exit was set for 2024, oil and gas use also need to be phased out…credible plans now only cover
one-third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target“.
Ultimately, whether the UK can remain in its high position depends on whether it can follow through on ambition with effective implementation.
A new study of over 14000 Britons looks at how the British public see the UK’s role on climate action on the global stage. The research finds that the public wants:
In light of the results of the 2024 US election, most Britons want to see the UK either maintain (40%) or strengthen (26%) its commitments to climate change, even if President-elect Trump withdraws the USA from the Paris Agreement again.
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Labour’s first 100 days in office have been critical for crystallising the new government’s agenda on climate. But exactly how green is the new cohort of MPs?