What do MPs need to know about voters’ views on climate?

Labour won a large majority in the 2024 General Election, increasing the number of Labour MPs in Parliament to 412. The Labour win was delivered on an historically low turnout, and via a small (but efficiently targeted) rise in Labour’s vote share compared to 2019. 

The result ushers in a government that will be (relatively) bolder on climate and net zero policy, compared to the outgoing Conservative government, who sustained their worst ever electoral defeat. Parliament now has a number of new pro-climate MPs, not only in Labour but in the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party (both of which saw surges in their vote share). Reform UK, the only party standing on an anti-net zero ticket, also saw a surge in support. 

So, what do the new (and returning) MPs need to bear in mind about voters’ views on climate, as they take their seats?

Climate clearly wasn’t a vote-loser in this election

The election results showed no signs of a ‘green backlash’.This is important and significant, underscoring the genuine consensus on reaching net zero across the breadth of society, and reflecting the concern most people have for our rivers, oceans, nature and wildlife.

The Conservatives had over the past two years positioned their own net zero goals as burdensome, and the data is clear that Sunak’s negative pivot on net zero brought precious little political capital: More in Common polling from June found voters were twice as likely to say that delaying net zero targets was one of Sunak’s biggest mistakes, than biggest achievements.

Reform made very little noise about their (lack of) environmental policies during the election campaign, perhaps correctly concluding that opposing net zero is not currently something that is important to Reform voters.

And there’s even some evidence that rural Conservative voters in southern ‘Blue Wall’ seats in England turned against the Conservatives on environmental grounds: polling for Greenpeace found one in four people in the region gave the Conservative party’s stance on the environment as a key reason for not voting for them (higher than the number nationally, which was one in five), echoing other polling on so-called ‘Turquoise Tories’.

There was no sign of a ‘greenlash’. But was climate a vote-winner?

This wasn’t a ‘climate election’? Discuss

Outlining his priorities as the new Energy Secretary, Ed Milliband, emphasised that global leadership on climate change, through domestic action, would be part of their renewed approach to a “mission-led” government. The creation of Great British Energy is one of their flagship policy pledges, at the centre of plans to revive the economy through green growth. 

But in common with all of the other parties, Labour was muted on climate and net zero during the month-long election period. And compared with the last General Election in 2019, there were roughly 50% fewer mentions of ‘climate’ in the British media election coverage (although mentions of ‘gas’, ‘oil’ and ‘net zero’ were all up).

In one sense, the lack of confrontation over climate in the election debates reflects the lack of contestation around environmental protection among voters. Climate and the environment were in the five highest vote influencing issues identified by voters in the run up to the election. And cost of living was at the top of everyone’s lists.

Labour’s immediate policy movements will be seen as positive steps by many voters. Polling in the build up to the election showed that ‘GB energy’ was supported by three quarters (75%) of Britons, and was Labour’s second most popular supported policy. And over half (53%) of voters who switched their vote from Conservatives to Labour or the Liberal Democrats since the election say that Government policy on climate change should be going further and faster than it has been. 

Correspondingly, scaling back ambition is unlikely to cut it with the public. When Labour backtracked on its £28bn green spending commitments in February, more than half disagreed with the move. Other polling around the time showed that 44% of Britons thought the Labour party were not taking climate change seriously. 

But this positive platform of pro-environmental sentiment, important as it is, masks a much more complicated picture under the surface. And one of Labour’s first steps since taking power perfectly illustrates the challenge.  

A reality check on climate support  

As widely expected, and as part of a package of planning reforms, the de-facto ban on onshore wind development was lifted this week in a move that will be widely supported by the public. Removing planning barriers is one crucial step towards building new wind farms, but public consent on the ground is equally as important. 

Here, Labour MPs are not immune to the ‘perception gaps’ that have distorted the discourse on renewables. 

Climate Barometer data show that Labour MPs consistently underestimate support for renewables among their constituents. While 75% would support a new onshore wind farm being built in their area, only 20% of Labour MPs thought more of their constituents would support than oppose such a development.

But while renewables are highly popular and people increasingly see their role in delivering secure energy, communities (and local MPs) will have a range of genuine and important questions and concerns about where major new infrastructure is located, and who is perceived to benefit from changes that will take place in predominantly rural areas.

There is no contradiction between support for ambitious net zero action and having questions about implementation. The public can urge the government to go faster on net zero, and see renewables as a route to delivering energy security, while still needing persuading on the details.

The idea that communities are full of ‘NIMBYs’ and ‘blockers’, who need to be transformed into ‘YIMBYs’ is not only untrue but also unhelpful.

‘Representation’ on climate matters now more than ever

With the rise in votes for two smaller parties (Greens and Reform), and the divergence between votes cast and seats won, many will feel their voices weren’t heard during this election. On climate, these discrepancies redouble the need for better representation, better community engagement, and better involvement in decision making around net zero policies that impact on people’s lives. 

There is an invitation from voters to the new government both to be bold, and to take public questions about costs and fairness seriously (or anti-net zero parties will be happy to do so). Voters want to have their voices represented in the shape and pace of the shift to net zero, and will expect politicians to craft climate policies that go with (rather than rub against) the grain of public opinion. 

That’s the balancing act the new Labour government needs to pull off, in order to lead from the front whilst bringing the public along. Politicisation on climate policies might be inevitable, but polarisation isn’t so long as the pivot to community engagement is done right.