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Clean air zones, congestion charges, and the more recent low traffic neighbourhoods (or sometimes, ‘livable neighbourhoods’) all have similar aims: to reduce air pollution and decrease car use/incentivise more efficient vehicles in the areas where they are implemented.
Common in many European countries for decades, clean air zones have generally enjoyed strong support once implemented. But because the expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in 2023 was implicated in an unexpected by-election result in Uxbridge, opposition and resistance to clean air zones has loomed large in wider debates about net zero.
Clean air zones improve air quality, and positively influence urban travel choices. But as with all green policies, public consent cannot be taken for granted.
How is public opinion and political support influencing where (and how) these changes to our cities take shape?
In a new guide focused on promoting necessary changes to urban transport policies – whether clean air zones or low traffic neighbourhoods – ACT Climate Labs draw on insights (including from Britain Talks Climate) to provide guidance on how to connect on transport without turning it into a culture war.
Polling for WalesOnline by Redfield & Wilton shows a sharp rise in the proportion of people opposed to the new ‘default’ 20mph speed limits introduced on certain roads in Wales (where ‘cars mix with pedestrians’).
Although introduced primarily for road-safety reasons, lower speed limits are one way in which air pollution from road traffic can be reduced, and 20mph limits are typically a feature of cleaner-air campaigns.
Support in Wales has dropped across the board, but especially among Conservative voters following intense opposition by the Conservative Party (including organising a petition against the new law)
This pattern is in contrast to the typical ‘Goodwin curve‘ of initial (pre-implementation) opposition softening into majority support once the new rules are in place.
The strength of opposition from Conservative politicians in Cardiff suggests – as with the opposition to clean air zones seen among Conservative MPs in Westminster – that the opposition is partly about creating a political dividing line.
But with a significant percentage of the Welsh public currently in opposition to the scheme, winning over the ‘Persuadables’ is more important than ever – something which ACT Climate Labs has issued recent guidance on around transport policies.
Whilst the change may not currently be popular, driver behaviour showed immediate signs of positive change, with average speeds dropping in the first week of the policy’s implementation.
Commentary & Analysis
18th September 2023
Author of the research Matthew Goodwin describes net zero as “a pet project among an out-of-touch, morally righteous and self-serving elite.”
YouGov polling from Sept 2023 shows drivers and non-drivers split on who ‘gets the best deal’ from travel policies
Among those who drive on at least five days in a week, 41% say that government policy tends to favour non-drivers, compared to just 18% who say it favours drivers. Britons who don’t drive say that policy favours drivers over non-drivers by 35% to 13%.
In both cases, there’s a sense that other people are getting a better deal – but what surveys like this (and the rhetoric from the current Government around the idea of a ‘war on motorists’) obscure, is that many people drive, cycle/wheel and walk on streets and roads.
The idea that there are ‘motorists’ and a group defined in opposition to cars, doesn’t tally well with the reality of how people experience their neighbourhoods. And other polls looking for differences between drivers and non-drivers, don’t always find any: In 2021 YouGov found support for clean air zones, and increasing the amounts levied in congestion zones, was almost identical between people who drive, and those who don’t.
In an investigation by Valent, analysing 13,000 tweets and 8000 retweets from 8,583 Twitter accounts (now ‘X’) evidence was found of online manipulation of the debate around the expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) ahead of the Uxbridge by-election in July 2023. The investigation revealed hundreds of thousands of pounds were spent on undermining London’s key clean-air policy – suggesting a coordinated and ultimate successful (in terms of the result of the Uxbridge by-election) attempt to create a backlash against ULEZ.
Commentary & Analysis
16th August 2023
Despite their prominence in online conspiracy theories, there is no clear evidence yet of how widespread offline opposition to 15-minute neighbourhoods actually is.
Conservative Home polled its (Conservative Party) members on their views on Net Zero, in the wake of the Uxbridge by-election.
Famously unrepresentative of the wider population (or even of Conservative voters), this small sample were against Low Traffic Neighbourhoods, strongly opposed to the 2030 phase out of petrol and diesel vehicles, and unpersuaded by the idea of a climate ’emergency’. They were only as unpersuaded as they were when the same question was asked three years ago, though – suggesting that although opposition to specific nearer-term targets may have hardened among this group, there isn’t necessarily a sense of worsening ‘polarisation‘.
Conservative Home wrote:
A picture of the typical panel member looks roughly like this. He (and it will usually be he) believes that global warming is happening, but isn’t necessarily convinced that human activity is driving it. He supports the Net Zero 2050 target, but not its presence on the statute book, and doesn’t believe that it will be hit. He is strongly opposed to the 2030 ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars – and to low traffic neighbourhoods…the nearer the target, tax or measure, the bigger the opposition
In polling by Omnisis for Desmog, a number of questions were asked about public support for low traffic neighbourhoods, and the expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) specifically.
Notably, the questions carefully explained to survey respondents the details of congestion zone charging – i.e. that only a minority of vehicles were affected.
The survey found support for policies that selectively impose charges on more polluting vehicles, but also evidence of confusion about how many vehicles were impacted by the ULEZ expansion to Greater London (perhaps linked to online misinformation).
A More in Common focus group for the Guardian newspaper, carried out just after the Uxbridge by-election, concluded that
“The heated rows over green policy that have dominated Westminster over the past week, had passed voters we spoke to in Don Valley and Chipping Barnet by.”
Although our Climate Barometer tracker data shows that there are some (Conservative) voters who are opposed to clean air zones, this perspective from far outside of the ‘bubble’ of Westminster commentary is useful to keep in mind: even opposition is unlikely to be strongly held or ‘top of mind’ for most voters.
Conservative voters are marginally more likely to be opposed than to support – but there is broad support for lowering urban speed limits from 30 to 20mph across the survey sample as a whole.
Although lower speed limits are typically advocated for on road-safety grounds, they also tend to improve air quality and so are typically also part of the package of measures that comprised clean air zones.
Banks and GP surgeries are the most desired amenities that are currently not available within 15 minutes walk for Britons, according to YouGov polling in March 2023.
Whilst the concept of 15 minute neighbourhoods has become the focus of online conspiracy theories, and protests have taken place in some cities around the country, it is not yet clear how widespread this opposition is among the general public.
This survey would suggest that opposition to 15 minute neighbourhoods – when it is explained to survey respondents what the they mean – is limited.
Outlining the arguments in favour of clean air zones, this Green Alliance report notes that they are now found in over 250 cities across Europe, and that there is “comprehensive research demonstrating they work” to reduce car use and pollution, once in place.
Making sense of public opinion on clean air zones
Public opinion on clean air zones and liveable neighbourhoods can sometimes appear to be contradictory. If clean air zones acquire the reputation of being unpopular, this is likely to prevent the ‘quiet majority’ who support them from making their own voices heard.