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The UN climate conference – COP – takes place annually. It attracts international political leaders, activists, lobbyists and journalists, with the conference focused on progressing global agreements and cooperation on climate change. Not only do the COPs act as major policy milestones, but they are potentially important moments for public engagement too.
They form a focal point for what climate movements around the world demand of their governments, and are major climate communication ‘moments’ in and of themselves, often marking a major uptick of media coverage and campaign activity.
The public recognise that climate change is a problem that can only be solved through international cooperation, and want to see global leadership by the UK government. Our Climate Barometer tracker shows that both the public and MPs think the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world on climate change.
But the picture is more mixed in terms of the faith people have in major international gatherings to deliver on their promises. And although COPs take up a huge amount of bandwidth for the climate movement, its not clear that the public is always paying attention.
This thread brings together insights on opinion about international negotiations with key discourses and developments around the annual COP cycle.
A report from the New Climate Institute finds that the UK has jumped the highest in its league of countries’ performance on tackling climate change, finishing behind only Denmark and the Netherlands.
While no country has performed well enough to qualify as a ‘very high’ performance, the UK’s ranking has been boosted by the new Labour government’s commitments to reduce emissions and roll out renewable energy across the country.
Despite this, the report says “the country is not on track to reach this target despite a significant reduction in 2023. While the coal exit was set for 2024, oil and gas use also need to be phased out…credible plans now only cover
one-third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target“.
Ultimately, whether the UK can remain in its high position depends on whether it can follow through on ambition with effective implementation.
A new study of over 14000 Britons looks at how the British public see the UK’s role on climate action on the global stage. The research finds that the public wants:
In light of the results of the 2024 US election, most Britons want to see the UK either maintain (40%) or strengthen (26%) its commitments to climate change, even if President-elect Trump withdraws the USA from the Paris Agreement again.
A new survey has found that two-thirds of people around the globe have not heard of the term ‘climate justice’, and less than 1-in-5 feel they have a good understanding of what it means. But despite a lack of awareness about the terminology, a clear majority (70%) felt that climate change is driven by capitalism and colonisation. The study by Charles Ogunbode and colleagues builds on previous work addressing engagement with climate justice, by suggesting that people are aware of the key issues underpinning climate justice, even if they don’t consciously link these with the concept. People’s beliefs about climate justice-related issues were also found to positively influence their climate actions and support for policies – suggesting there is much value in building greater awareness.
A new study has illustrated a clear demand from citizens around the world for governments to strengthen their climate commitments ahead of COP29. The UN-funded ‘People’s Climate Vote’ – reportedly the world’s largest standalone public opinion survey on climate change, covering 77 countries – has found that four in five people (80%) globally are calling for their country to strengthen its commitments to climate action.
A clear desire was also expressed for greater climate collaboration between countries, alongside help for poorer nations. A very large majority (86%) believed that countries should put their disagreements aside and work together on addressing climate change (In the UK this was even higher at 90%), while over three-quarters globally (79%) called for richer countries to give more help to poorer countries to address climate change.
The evidence strengthens calls for international agreements to make urgent progress on climate change. However, it should be noted that given the large number of countries surveyed, questions in this survey are high-level and general, rather than tailored to each country. This means they may not capture the complexities of climate debates within nations, and further context is needed to interpret the findings at the country-level.
Commentary & Analysis
23rd November 2023
Knowledge of COPs is limited, and there is scepticism about whether the promises made at international meetings are being kept – but voters still want and expect to see British climate leadership on the world stage.
Carbon Brief has produced an interactive table of ‘who wants what’ from the COP28 UN climate change negotiations, searchable by topic and across different negotiating groups.
In polling commissioned by the Press Association, ahead of COP28 in Dubai, Ipsos MORI asked people whether they thought the commitments made at the event would lead to climate action.
47% believed this was unlikely, whilst only 17% gave a more optimistic answer.
These finding reflect a sense of cynicism that was present before last year’s event in Egypt (which Rishi Sunak eventually attended, but was criticised for initially avoiding), and strikingly low levels of trust in politicians on climate issues.
To the extent that this level of detail registers with public audiences (the same IPSOS poll found only 32% will follow the news around COP28 closely this year, and 61% would not follow the event’s progress), the optics and contradictions of a city famous for its oil-wealth hosting the UN’s flagship climate event is also likely to be playing a role in muting public expectations about the credibility of the conference.
Polling by Omnisis around the time of COP27 in Egypt found that 53% of people in the UK did not think the event would do anything to speed up international action on climate change. Only 29% felt that it would speed up action.
In the wake of uncertainty about whether new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would attend in person, discussion in the Conservative leadership election of rowing back on net zero commitments, and perhaps reflecting the dominance of protest coverage at COP26 (which challenged the legitimacy of COP negotiations), cynicism about the value of UN conferences seems to have increased from the relatively optimistic perspectives captured during COP26 in Glasgow.
According to polling by Omnisis, less than a quarter of the UK public (24%) think Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is showing leadership on climate change, in the context of hesitation around attendance at COP27.
This stands in contrast with the desire held by most Britons for the UK to show climate leadership and be one of the most ambitious countries in the world on climate change.
The same survey found broad support for the government funding climate action in less wealthy nations overseas.
When asked “Does the UK have a responsibility to fund climate action in poorer nations now suffering from climate-related extreme weather disasters?”, 49% said yes, while 31% said no. 29% say they did not know.
This aligns with data from our Climate Barometer tracker, which shows high levels of support for wealthy nations providing compensation to poorer countries for damages caused by the climate crisis.
Media analysis by Climate Outreach suggests that international negotiations are key events not only for policy, but in shaping public attitudes on climate:
“The annual UN conference provides a yearly focus point for climate media stories, events and activists. While the focus is on policy making, this can have a significant associated impact on how citizens view and understand the issues being discussed. For example the perceived failure of COP15 in Copenhagen is associated with a significant downturn in public climate concern. Understanding the interplay between different elements within the plethora of coverage is crucial for public engagement.
Our analysis indicates that publics in general were engaged by COP26 and the majority felt more optimistic about chances of dealing with the climate change challenge by the end. Yet it is noticeable that there were marked differences in the dominant narratives between traditional media and those most loudly heard on social media and at cultural events. Does this matter? One possibility is that it doesn’t – and that as the climate conversation grows, it’s natural and right that differences of opinion will remain. But from a communications perspective, mixed messaging may impact on how people understand and relate to climate change – which could undermine effectiveness.”
In analysis by Kantar, coverage of protests at COP26 was found to have outstripped coverage of the conference itself (in traditional media).
On social media, Geta Thunberg was one of the biggest presences on Twitter, driving engagement with traditional coverage of COP26 protests.
What the public ‘sees’ at climate conferences can shape wider climate beliefs – and although there was small but significant increase in public optimism during the course of COP26, the dominance of protests in traditional and social media is likely to have conveyed an overall impression of the conference as a ‘problem’ (to be protested against) rather than part of the solution.
COP28 calls for “transition away from fossil fuels”. Does the UK public agree?
Where does UK public opinion sit on support for phasing out fossil fuels in the UK?