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The UK has legally binding commitments to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. But in terms of building support for the specifics of the transition, the journey has only just begun.
Roughly 60% of emissions cuts will need to come through changes to the way that energy is consumed if net-zero targets are to be achieved. This means how people think and feel about the transition to net-zero is central to how fast (and how fairly) the transition takes place.
From the phase out of new petrol and diesel cars (and phase in of electric vehicles), to the installation of heat pumps and retrofitting of insulation, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 requires ongoing public support and a broad political mandate.
The Climate Change Committee has been clear that the government needs to empower and inform households and communities to make low-carbon choices, and calls for a step-change in government approaches to public engagement reflect the scale of the emissions cuts that must come through people supporting and undertaking shifts in behaviours (e.g. eating less meat) or adopting new technologies (e.g. heat pumps).
How is opinion on net zero in the UK evolving?
The new Labour government has brought its plans for a publicly owned energy company, Great British Energy, to parliament.
The Great British Energy Bill was formally introduced to the House of Commons on the 25th of July, and the bill is expected to pass through its second stage in early September.
Following a long-standing commitment to base the energy company in Scotland, Labour have since announced GB Energy will be headquartered in Aberdeen.
Commentary & Analysis
9th July 2024
In the wake of the 2024 General Election results, what do MPs need to bear in mind in terms of voters’ climate opinions?
Labour won a large majority in the 2024 General Election, increasing the number of Labour MPs in Parliament to 412. The Labour win was delivered on an historically low turnout, and via a small rise in Labour’s vote share compared to 2019.
The result ushers in a government that will be (relatively) bolder on climate and net zero policy, compared to the outgoing Conservative government, who sustained their worst ever electoral defeat. Parliament now has a number of new pro-climate MPs, not only in Labour but in the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party (both of which saw surges in their vote share). Reform UK, the only party standing on an anti-net zero ticket, also saw a surge in support.
Commentary & Analysis
1st July 2024
People of colour in the UK are disproportionately affected by climate change impacts. But despite this, there remains a lack of research around diversity, experience and engagement with climate change.
Following sharp criticism from the Climate Change Committee (which said the Scottish government was failing to deliver on its net zero goals and had no credible delivery strategy), a target to reduce the country’s emissions by 75% by 2030 was dropped.
The Scottish Net Zero Cabinet Secretary Màiri McAllan said she “accepted” the target was no longer achievable.
The Scottish National Party (SNP) seemed reluctant to concede the target they had set was now impossible to achieve. This stands in contrast to the rhetoric deployed by Rishi Sunak in September 2023 when he announced delays to some UK-level net zero goals, positioning them as a ‘burden’ that the government would protect voters from.
The fallout from the SNP’s announcement was immediate and significant.
The SNP’s power-sharing coalition with the Scottish Green Party was dissolved days later, with disagreement over the decision to scrap the 2030 target cited as one of the reasons for the breakdown of the agreement. Humza Yousaf subsequently resigned as First Minister.
Some commentary suggested that the disagreement over the climate targets reflected the divisiveness of net zero in Scotland, but a poll conducted whilst all of this was unfolding underscored the support among Scottish voters for the country’s net zero ambition.
Commentary & Analysis
18th April 2024
Without winning a single seat, Reform UK could seriously disrupt the dominant discourse on net zero.
Policies to cut carbon can bring a range of ‘co-benefits’. From cleaner air, to warmer homes, to the prospect of green jobs, these co-benefits have often been advocated as a way to build support for net zero among people who may be more interested in these side-effects of climate policies than net zero itself.
In a new survey led by Neil Jennings at the Grantham Institute (Imperial College London), just over 1000 people were asked to assess nine different potential co-benefits of action on climate change.
The top response was ‘homes that are more affordable to heat’. This was chosen as the most important benefit for individuals, for communities, and for the country as a whole. It was also supported by voters of all parties. In the context of the eyewatering cost of energy over the past two years, cheaper heating bills were a universally popular co-benefit of action on climate change.
Another popular response was ‘improved energy security’. This makes a lot of sense, given that the rise in energy prices over the past two years was driven by a spike in the price of imported gas in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. And there’s growing evidence that renewables as a route to a more secure, homegrown energy system is a popular proposition across the political spectrum.
Interestingly, there was much less support for the idea that climate policies could be drivers of job creation. The prospect of green jobs has routinely been used by campaigners and politicians alike to build support for net zero. But this survey – backed by wider research – suggests that claims about green jobs may not land as well as is assumed.
But the survey makes it clear there’s work to do to persuade the public that even the most popular co-benefits are feasible in practice, with fewer people agreeing they’re practically achievable than identifying them as desirable in the first place.
The problem here isn’t a lack of positivity towards job creation, its the level of trust in the government to deliver them. Whether its warmer homes, energy security, or new green jobs, practical and tangible examples of climate policies actually delivering the benefits people want to see play a crucial role.
Climate policies really can deliver a whole host of positives. But when it comes to persuading the public of net zero co-benefits, seeing is believing.
The Spring 2024 budget was extremely light on green spending announcements – making it one of the “least green budgets” of recent years according to reporting in The Guardian.
Given that the net zero economy is booming across the country – and that both voters and MPs see clean energy as the sector most likely to generate further growth – the absence of additional green investment is perhaps the most striking climate takeaway.
There were a smattering of ‘green tinged’ announcements (rounded up by Carbon Brief) which included:
The budget did not include any measures to reduce the cost of charging electric vehicles (EVs) – something that the former Top Gear journalist Quentin Wilson’s FairCharge campaign had been calling for. In fact, by extending the freeze on duty charged on petrol and diesel fuels, the budget prioritised petrol and diesel motoring over EVs.
In a survey of 2000 people, researchers at Cardiff and Bath universities explored public support for low carbon heating technologies (including heat pumps), and the factors that influence this support.
The survey found the majority of the respondents had at least a small amount of knowledge about low carbon heating options, and when provided with further information, held favourable views. Heat pumps (likely due to their prominence in policy discussions) were identified as the low carbon heating technology with the highest level of support.
Concerns about energy security, and pro-environmental attitudes were two factors which led to higher support for heat pumps. But the research also uncovered another important driver: knowing someone who has already had one installed.
Dubbed the ‘social circle effect’, people’s willingness to adopt low carbon heating options increased if they knew even one person who already had a heat pump.
An analysis by the website Carbon Brief has found a record number of editorials in UK newspapers (almost exclusively right-leaning publications) that oppose climate action. Carbon Brief writes:
Newspapers such as the Sun and the Daily Mail published 42 editorials in 2023 arguing against climate action – nearly three times more than they have printed before in a single year. They called for delays to UK bans on the sale of fossil fuel-powered cars and boilers, as well as for more oil-and-gas production in the North Sea. In response to such demands, prime minister Rishi Sunak performed a “U-turn” in September on some of his government’s major net-zero policies.
Climate Barometer tracker data suggests a correspondence (cause and effect is harder to establish) between the views of Conservative MPs on net zero policies, and the views expressed in these editorials. But among the public there is not such a clear relationship, with even Conservative voters ambivalent on whether delays to net zero targets are in touch, or out of touch with public sentiment:
Opposition to climate policies is not only found in right-leaning editorials, however. An analysis by the the Centre for Countering Digital Hate found a surge in what they call ‘new denial’ narratives on Youtube in 2023. These include attempts to discredit green energy technologies, or exaggerate their cost – positions that mirror the editorial content analysed by Carbon Brief.
Desmog reviewed more than 2,000 Telegraph opinion pieces and editorials published online over a six month period, ending in 16 October.
The website reported that of 171 opinion pieces that dealt with environmental issues, 85 percent were identified as “anti-green”, meaning they were attacking climate policy, questioning climate science or ridiculing environmental groups.
The chart below shows the number of daily anti-green op-eds reached a peak around the Uxbridge by-election in July, as the debate around clean air zones reached a crescendo.
Although there isn’t a straightforward ’cause and effect’ relationship between media commentary and public opinion, this volume of coverage provides a loud drumbeat of anti-green commentary to Conservative MPs in particular (more than half say they read the Telegraph regularly), which is likely to be influencing the views they infer their constituents have on a range of green policies.
We see this clearly in the ‘perception gap‘ MPs have on onshore wind, but increasingly on clean air zones and other green policies too, where opposition among the public is significantly overestimated.
Commentary & Analysis
14th November 2023
There were bumps on the road to net zero in 2023. But did the delays and diversions reflect growing public doubts or political dividing lines?
Has support for net zero risen or fallen since the election?
Following the General Election, there is a clear uptick in support for the country’s net zero targets. Support for net zero by 2050 is at its highest point in almost 2 years, yet enthusiasm for some flagship policies hasn’t yet caught up.