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  • Overview
  • Oct '24
    MP polling: Is this the greenest parliament ever?
  • New study: Political leaders’ actions can inspire behavioural change
  • Jul '24
    New Labour government announces planning reforms to increase onshore wind development
  • What do MPs need to know about voters’ views on climate?
  • New Labour government elected
  • Jun '24
    Conservative Environment Network: Polling shows climate change is not salient for Reform voters
  • Carbon Brief: General Election 2024 energy & climate manifesto tracker
  • May '24
    General Election 2024: Will culture wars win votes?
  • Tony Blair Institute survey on perceptions of net zero
  • Tracker data: Public dissatisfaction with politicians’ handling of climate
  • Apr '24
    Scotland drops 2030 emissions target but retains 2045 net zero ambition
  • Green Alliance policy tracker: March 2024 update
  • Feb '24
    ECIU polling: more voters had heard about Labour’s green investment ‘U-turn’ than the policy itself
  • Voters want political leadership on climate change
  • YouGov polling: Labour voters see government U-turns as a bad sign
  • Nov '23
    Tracker data: Low levels of trust in political parties to speak about climate change
  • Understanding perceptions of political leadership on climate change
  • Carbon Brief analysis of the language used in the autumn statement shows change climate given a low priority
  • Oct '23
    More in Common: Labour can increase support among key Red Wall ‘Loyal Nationals’ by focusing on green investment
  • Public First polling: Delays to net zero make a party less electable
  • Tracker data: Do MPs see Net Zero as a vote winner or loser in Red and Blue Wall seats?
  • Tracker data: MP and public opinion on government climate action
  • Sep '23
    Greenpeace polling: Climate will influence the next election in Blue Wall constituencies
  • More in Common: Most voters think the government is doing too little on climate
  • ECIU poll: net zero policy rollback viewed as ‘untrustworthy’ by most; ‘sensible’ by some
  • Climate Citizens report: Sustaining the political mandate for climate action
  • Jun '23
    ACT Climate Labs guide: How to rebut ‘what about China and India’ arguments
  • Climate Change Committee: How the government can show leadership on climate change
  • Dec '22
    Video clip testing: Voters are more likely to support Labour when they hear them talking about climate change
  • Nov '22
    COP27 polling: Few see Rishi Sunak as showing leadership, but most support climate funds for poorer nations
  • Nov '21
    Ahead of COP26, Loyal Nationals express scepticism around around international cooperation
  • Jun '21
    Research paper: High carbon lifestyles can undermine climate messaging
  • Oct '20
    Britain Talks Climate: Most people are unsure which party has best climate policies
Topic

Political Leadership

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  • In Brief

    Since the earliest investigations into public opinion on climate change, it’s been clear that the public expect and want the government to take the lead on climate change.

    Famously, the UK’s Climate Change Act was world-leading when it was first passed – and in 2019, the central target was upgraded from an 80% cut in emissions to net-zero emissions by 2050.

    But although claims of political leadership have persisted – including around the UK’s hosting of the annual UN climate conference in Glasgow in 2021 – periodic assessments by the Climate Change Committee have in recent years highlighted a slowing of progress, and explicitly called for the UK to ‘regain its international political leadership’.

    Set against historically low trust in politicians and widespread disengagement from the political system, people nonetheless consistently say that the government should be doing and spending more on climate change.

    This thread brings together relevant opinion data around political leadership (from the public and MPs through our Climate Barometer tracker), set against key policy developments that help make sense of if, how and why opinion is changing.

  • Opinion Insight 7th October 2024

    New study: Political leaders’ actions can inspire behavioural change

    New research has revealed that politicians visibly ‘leading by example’ can substantially increase the willingness of members of the UK public to adopt further low-carbon lifestyle changes.

    The study looked at over a thousand people’s responses to the examples of  ‘high-profile individuals’ in a nationally representative survey. It found that the vast majority (86%) wanted to see politicians, celebrities and business leaders setting a good example in terms of their climate actions. Citizens were also more willing to adopt low-carbon actions, such as flying less, eating less meat, or driving an electric car if they saw leaders doing the same. At the same time, people’s overall approval of leaders who were setting a strong example improved.

    Despite this, further investigation showed that politicians may currently be reluctant to publicise their personal climate-friendly actions due to fear of criticism for virtue signaling, or hypocrisy.

    Together the work suggests that rather than pulling off ‘green stunts’, politicians’ consistency of action over time is crucial, and it can also be beneficial if they acknowledge that some changes may be too difficult or costly for everyone to make (such as buying an electric car or installing a heat pump).

    Policy Insight 12th July 2024

    New Labour government announces planning reforms to increase onshore wind development

    In a widely anticipated move, the new Labour government announced reforms to the planning system which make the development of onshore wind farms easier (the previous Conservative government had a def-facto ‘ban’ in place).

    Onshore wind is a very popular form of energy, which people across the political spectrum support. Whilst reforms of the planning system remove an important barrier to the development of onshore wind farms, early (and inclusive) community engagement is also a critical piece of the puzzle.

    YouGov carried out polling just after the July 4th General Election, focused on the planning reforms Labour had announced. Whilst building houses on the ‘green belt’ provoked across-the-board opposition, building green infrastructure was widely popular:

    Six in ten (60%) Britons favour ending the current ban in England on building new onshore wind farms, with more strongly supporting such an overturn (30%) than opposing it to any degree (23%). Not only can this policy count on the support of at least half of all groups, it is the most popular of Labour’s proposed reforms among Conservative voters, with 54% in favour of scrapping the ban.

     

    • Source: GOV.UK
    • Date: 8th July 2024
    Wider Context 7th July 2024

    New Labour government elected

    Labour won a large majority in the 2024 General Election, increasing the number of Labour MPs in Parliament to 412. The Labour win was delivered on an historically low turnout, and via a small rise in Labour’s vote share compared to 2019.

    The result ushers in a government that will be (relatively) bolder on climate and net zero policy, compared to the outgoing Conservative government, who sustained their worst ever electoral defeat. Parliament now has a number of new pro-climate MPs, not only in Labour but in the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party (both of which saw surges in their vote share). Reform UK, the only party standing on an anti-net zero ticket, also saw a surge in support.

    Opinion Insight 12th June 2024

    Conservative Environment Network: Polling shows climate change is not salient for Reform voters

    Polling by Opinium for the Conservative Environment Network (CEN), conducted just before the 2024 General Election was announced, suggests that playing into Reform UK’s anti-net zero stance will not be a vote winner for the Conservative party.

    One important finding is that although Reform UK is (uniquely among the other mainstream parties) campaigning on an anti-net zero ticket, climate change is not currently a salient issue for Reform voters. The CEN polling found that only 2% of Reform voters listed climate change/net zero/environment as their primary concern (the majority chose immigration as their primary concern).

    This mirrors polling carried out across multiple European countries, ahead of the EU election which saw significant gains for far-right parties. In Europe, as in the UK, the rise in support for right wing parties does not appear to be driven by these parties’ policies on climate change (even if they tend to hold anti-net zero positions).

     

    Policy Insight 12th June 2024

    Carbon Brief: General Election 2024 energy & climate manifesto tracker

    Carbon Brief has published an interactive tool which allows different aspects of climate and energy policies to be searched (and compared) for the five most popular political parties at the 2024 General Election:

    “With the exception of climate-sceptic Reform, all major political parties continue to back the UK’s net-zero climate goal. Heading into the election, however, they have talked about the target in very different ways, with the Conservatives focusing on costs and Labour on benefits.

    Following 14 years of Conservative government, which included the Covid-19 pandemic, the global energy crisis and Brexit, the polls overwhelmingly suggest that the opposition Labour party will take power in July.

    In the interactive grid below, Carbon Brief tracks the commitments made by major political parties in their latest election manifestos. The grid covers a range of issues connected to energy and climate change.

    Each entry in the grid represents a direct quote from one or more of these documents. The grid will be updated as each party publishes their manifesto.”

    Opinion Insight 31st May 2024

    Tony Blair Institute survey on perceptions of net zero

    The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) commissioned survey data in support of a linked call for the UK to ‘reimagine’ its net zero targets. The survey (of 15,000 people) was conducted across seven European member states, as well as the UK.

    Many of the findings support well-established patterns of climate change/net zero perceptions among the UK public, including:

    • Climate change as a ‘top five’ issue
    • Firm support for the goal of achieving net zero by 2050
    • Limited faith in the ability of (current) elected politicians to achieve this
    • A majority agreeing that the UK should lead on climate change even if China isn’t seen to be taking proportionate action (although with this support concentrated among those who ‘prioritise climate change’)
    • The importance of visible leadership and fairness/affordability for consumer-facing climate policies

    Focusing on the lack of belief in the feasibility of net zero goals based on current government programmes (what they call the ‘delivery deficit’), the TBI argues that the UK’s net zero targets should be relaxed, on the grounds that they are out of step with public opinion, and have been made without paying sufficient attention to public concerns on cost and affordability.

    The latter point is important: net zero policies will indeed be difficult to achieve without broad based public support.

    But wider research is clear that across the political spectrum, people want to see more leadership on climate, not less. The ‘delivery deficit’ that the TBI identifies could just as easily be used as an argument to bring the public in, and go faster on net zero.

    Climate Barometer Tracker 17th May 2024

    Tracker data: Public dissatisfaction with politicians’ handling of climate

    Large sections of the public, from across political lines say that UK politicians’ handling of climate change has been more incompetent than competent, more indecisive than decisive, and more out of touch with the public than in touch with the public.

    This data was collected in April 2024, following a period of delays to net zero and climate action, with Labour removing its 28 billion green spending target – and prior to that, the rollback of net zero policies by the Conservative party in September.

    Policy Insight 30th April 2024

    Scotland drops 2030 emissions target but retains 2045 net zero ambition

    Following sharp criticism from the Climate Change Committee (which said the Scottish government was failing to deliver on its net zero goals and had no credible delivery strategy), a target to reduce the country’s emissions by 75% by 2030 was dropped.

    The Scottish Net Zero Cabinet Secretary Màiri McAllan said she “accepted” the target was no longer achievable.

    The Scottish National Party (SNP) seemed reluctant to concede the target they had set was now impossible to achieve. This stands in contrast to the rhetoric deployed by Rishi Sunak in September 2023 when he announced delays to some UK-level net zero goals, positioning them as a ‘burden’ that the government would protect voters from.

    The fallout from the SNP’s announcement was immediate and significant.

    The SNP’s power-sharing coalition with the Scottish Green Party was dissolved days later, with disagreement over the decision to scrap the 2030 target cited as one of the reasons for the breakdown of the agreement.  Humza Yousaf subsequently resigned as First Minister.

    Some commentary suggested that the disagreement over the climate targets reflected the divisiveness of net zero in Scotland, but a poll conducted whilst all of this was unfolding underscored the support among Scottish voters for the country’s net zero ambition.

    • Source: Net Zero Scotland
    Policy Insight 8th April 2024

    Green Alliance policy tracker: March 2024 update

    The Green Alliance Net Zero policy tracker has monitored government policies since 2020. The March 2024 update compares progress against the emissions pathways set out in the Net Zero Strategy, last updated in 2023. The report concludes that across the whole economy, and for many individual sectors, there is a continued lack of progress on decarbonisation, and adds that ‘strong leadership is missing across the political spectrum’.

    Beyond the material threat to decarbonisation this lack of leadership poses, Climate Barometer tracker data is clear that voters want and expect leadership on climate change.

    Its absence therefore also undermines policies which require buy-in and acquiescence from the public, including the transition from gas boilers to electrified heat pumps.

    Opinion Insight 21st February 2024

    ECIU polling: more voters had heard about Labour’s green investment ‘U-turn’ than the policy itself

    In the wake of Labour’s announcement that their green investment pledge would be scaled back, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) commissioned snap polling from Opinium.

    Only 14% of people reported being ‘very aware’ of Labour’s (previously) proposed £28 billion a year investment plans. This is worth noting, as a significant amount of debate within green policy circles has focused on this specific number (but most of the public wasn’t aware of it in the first place).

    Roughly double the number of people (26%) said they were ‘very aware’ of the decision to reduce the £28 billion pledge, though, suggesting that for a significant number of people, the intense media debate around whether or not Labour would ‘U-turn’ would have been the first time they had encountered the policy.

    Read our analysis taking stock of what the policy shift from Labour is likely to have meant to voters here.

    Opinion Insight 8th February 2024

    YouGov polling: Labour voters see government U-turns as a bad sign

    YouGov tracker polling from February 2024 shows the British public have a mixed response to governments announcing policy U-turns, with roughly even numbers overall saying it’s ‘a good sign – showing they are willing to listen and change their minds when people complain or situations change’ (36%), and saying it’s ‘a bad sign – showing they are incompetent, weak, or have not thought their policies through properly in advance’ (34%).

    There are differences between voters though: Conservatives are more likely to look favourably upon government U-turns, with 51% seeing U-turns as a good thing. Those intending to vote Labour tend to lean the other way, with 41% opposing them.

    In the context of the Labour Party’s announcement it will drop its prior commitment to spending £28 billion a year on green investment, Labour voters are unlikely to support it if they view it as a U-turn.

    Climate Barometer Tracker 29th November 2023

    Tracker data: Low levels of trust in political parties to speak about climate change

    Climate Barometer tracker data shows that the public, and strikingly MPs, do not put the political party they voted for in the top three most trusted sources to speak on the subject of climate change.

    In the public data, only 2% selected this option, including only 1% of Conservative voters.

    For MPs, the figure is higher at 14%, but hardly a ringing endorsement.

    Because of the way the question was asked, sources with the ‘credentials’ to speak on climate change are likely to have been preferentially selected. However, the fact that the voters for (and political representatives of) their own political parties don’t see themselves as being trusted on climate suggests there is a space in the national political discourse for credible, climate-literate politicians.

    The top three trusted messengers for MPs are:

    1) Academics, 2) Naturalists such as David Attenborough and Chris Packham, and 3) The Climate Change Committee.

    The top three trusted messengers for the public are:

    1) Scientists, 2) Naturalists such as David Attenborough and Chris Packham, and 3) None of the above.

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