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Political Leadership

Voters want political leadership on climate change

21 February 2024

In early 2024, Labour announced a reduction in its green investment commitments if it were to win power. Voters want consistency on climate change, whichever party is in power.

Following repeated political attacks, worsening economic conditions, reports of internal disagreements, and endless lobby briefings, Labour announced during the first week of February, 2024, that their pledge to spend £28 billion a year on green investment had been reduced to just under £24 billion (across the entire parliamentary term). It’s important to take stock of the public mood, and what voters will make of the shift in policy.

How much do the numbers matter?

There’s good reason to think the public was never wedded – or opposed – to the £28 billion figure: big, abstract numbers like this are not how voters think about the green transition. But reducing the financial commitment has meant lowering the ambition of universally popular policies like home insulation. In that very real sense (damper, colder homes), it matters – and so do the ‘optics’. Flip-flopping on climate leadership is unlikely to win Labour any votes, just as Rishi Sunak’s announcements of delays to some net zero policies last year didn’t increase support for the Conservatives.

Voters want consistency on climate change, whichever party is in power.

Leadership and U-turns

Beyond the question of how many billions will be invested, the public and businesses want and expect political leadership on climate change. The government is viewed by the public as being ‘out of touch’ when delaying and rolling back on net zero policies, and the word most commonly selected by the public to describe politicians (of any party) watering down net zero commitments is ‘untrustworthy’.

YouGov polling, conducted just after the Labour announcement, shows that 44% of the public thinks the Labour party is not taking climate change seriously, compared to 29% who do. Separate YouGov polling from this week shows that 41% of Labour voters see government U-turns as ‘a bad sign’.

Why do voters support green policies? 

Polling data shows clearly and consistently that people are worried about climate change, and voters and MPs across the political spectrum support the principle and the ambition of cutting the UK’s carbon emissions by 2050.

The wide range of climate impacts people expect the country to experience in the next ten years include rising bills and costs – so a programme of investment that stimulates growth and reduces spiralling energy costs from insecure gas imports is likely to be a vote winner. And message testing shows that voters are not easily persuaded to drop their support for green spending by the argument that net zero will ‘cost the government billions we could be spending on other more pressing areas’.

Green policies have to be (and feel) fair 

When it comes to the UK’s net zero targets and specific green policies like ramping up home insulation (one of the immediate victims of the downgraded investment figure), there is wide support across political divides. But the path to net zero has to be (and feel) fair. Green measures (like insulation) can save households money – but also have an upfront cost unless they’re subsidised in a fair way. Many people are willing to make changes in their own lives to help tackle climate change – from cutting down household energy to making dietary changes. Strikingly, even some of those on the lowest incomes say they would take on extra costs to tackle climate change.

But the top 1% of earners in the UK are responsible for the same amount of carbon dioxide emissions in a single year as the bottom 10%, so household changes made by those with the highest carbon footprints have a dramatically bigger impact – and this group is much more able to bear the costs of the transition.

Climate Barometer data shows that the public feel the fossil fuel industry and energy companies should pay the majority of the costs when it comes to reaching net zero. And in research with working class voters, more than half agreed that it is important to combat climate change but “people like me should not be paying the cost of policies to reduce global carbon emissions”. 

So perhaps the missing piece of the puzzle for voters on the financing of green policies is the question of ‘who pays’ and how this kind of investment will create the conditions for a truly fair, green transition – something a focus on the headline investment figure could too easily obscure.

The latest from the Political Leadership timeline:

Wider Context 21st November 2024

UK “biggest climber” on climate action as COP29 heads to a close

A report from the New Climate Institute finds that the UK has jumped the highest in its league of countries’ performance on tackling climate change, finishing behind only Denmark and the Netherlands.

While no country has performed well enough to qualify as a ‘very high’ performance, the UK’s ranking has been boosted by the new Labour government’s commitments to reduce emissions and roll out renewable energy across the country.

Despite this, the report says “the country is not on track to reach this target despite a significant reduction in 2023. While the coal exit was set for 2024, oil and gas use also need to be phased out…credible plans now only cover
one-third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target“.

Ultimately, whether the UK can remain in its high position depends on whether it can follow through on ambition with effective implementation.

  • Source: Climate Change Performance Index
  • Date: 20th November 2024
Opinion Insight 7th November 2024

Britons want the UK to stay committed to climate despite Trump

A new study of over 14000 Britons looks at how the British public see the UK’s role on climate action on the global stage. The research finds that the public wants:

  • Stronger UK leadership on climate change, with climate change as a top foreign policy issue, and the UK to be one of the countries leading the way.
  • The public don’t see climate as distinct from the nation’s overall security, and would like to see a ‘defence +’ approach to foreign policy which is broader than only military defense, but which also takes into account climate, energy, food and water security.

In light of the results of the 2024 US election, most Britons want to see the UK either maintain (40%) or strengthen (26%) its commitments to climate change, even if President-elect Trump withdraws the USA from the Paris Agreement again.

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