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A survey of 2000 people (in Novembers and December 2023) as part of the DeepDCarb project, has found mixed views on oil and gas expansion, and differences which track political divides.
30% were opposed to ‘Issue licences to permit new oil and gas expansion’, 30% neither supported or opposed new licenses (or didn’t have an opinion), and a slightly higher number (41%) were in support.
But bigger differences were apparent when the survey sample was split according to voting intention. Expansion was supported by two-thirds of both Conservative and Reform voters (and only opposed by one in ten), while Labour voters opposed expansion (41%) more often than they favoured it (34%). The majority of Green and SNP voters were opposed.
The findings mirror Climate Barometer data showing clear divides between left and right-leaning voters on oil and gas. But they also reflect patterns in wider research on the transition away from oil and gas, which indicate strong support for moving away from fossil fuels, alongside a willingness to accept the near-term need for domestic oil and gas.
Like support for the 2050 net zero target, support for renewables comfortably outpaces opposition. And people are much more likely to consider renewables as the route to building energy security than fossil fuels.
But there is a creeping growth in support for oil and gas – wrapped up in the very same conversation about energy security. Since the 2024 election, support among MPs for expanding drilling for oil and gas has inched up, driven by Conservative MPs pursuing an increasingly Reform-influenced agenda on domestic energy policy.
Yet, despite most Britons supporting clean energy, even when it means wind and solar farms in their local area, there remains a clear perception gap. As covered by Business Green, our most recent data shows that both the public and MPs continue to overestimate local opposition to these renewable developments.
Kemi Badenoch doubled down on her party’s net zero rollbacks – pledging to get all oil and gas out of the North Sea, and remove net zero requirements on oil and gas companies drilling in the region – if elected. But is the Conservative leader’s stance at odds with wider public opinion?
Climate Barometer data shows that just 8% of Britons see oil and gas as one of the biggest growth sectors over the next five years – compared to 35% who say this about renewable energy and clean technology. This is consistent across UK regions, with only 10% of those in Scotland thinking of oil and gas as one of the top growth sectors in the near future, compared to 39% who say this about renewables.
But the Conservative leader’s position appears to not just be at odds with the wider public – Conservative voters themselves don’t show much faith in fossil fuels as a growing industry either. While there have been some recent shifts, only 14% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 think of the oil and gas sector as showing the biggest growth opportunity for the UK in the next five years. This is roughly half the amount of Conservative voters who say renewables and clean tech are the biggest growing sector (27%), and much less than the amount who think artificial intelligence will grow at pace (43%).
The majority of Britons (55%) think that the best way to ensure the UK’s energy security is to reduce the use of fossil fuels and expand use of renewable energy (such as wind and solar). In comparison, only 24% of the UK public think that increasing the supply of oil and gas by allowing new oil and gas exploration licences, as proposed by Kemi Badenoch on Monday, would be the best way to ensure the UK’s energy security.
In a reversal of the government’s decision to grant planning permission for a new coal mine near Whitehaven in Cumbria, the High Court ruled that the greenhouse gas emissions of the coal to be burned at the mine had not been taken into account when the decision had been made.
Instead, and echoing the claims of ‘net zero’ airports which don’t include the emissions from flights, consideration had only been given to the emissions released in building and operating the facility.
The High court decision came during the same month that the last of the UK’s coal-fired power stations was closed.