A review of Conservative’s net zero sentiment, as Kemi Badenoch rolls back her party’s commitment to the 2050 target.
Kemi Badenoch has announced that her party is dropping its commitment to reach net zero by 2050, as part of the Conservatives’ biggest policy review in a generation. The Tory leader argued that getting to Britain’s legally binding climate target would be “impossible”, while abandoning one of the Conservatives most significant green policies.
Former PM, Theresa May, who ushered in the net zero target, immediately criticised the move saying that “delaying action will only harm the next generation and increase both the economic and social costs of climate change”.
But is Kemi’s ‘climate impossibilism’ out of step with her own party’s climate opinion?
Conservative voters are in favour of the net zero target
The decision is not only a wholesale reversal of Badenoch’s 2022 speech, where she highlighted the “opportunity, growth, and revitalized communities” of the clean energy transition, which she called a “future-proofing force” for a better tomorrow – but it also puts the Tory leadership out of touch with her own voters, parliament, and the wider electorate.
Climate Barometer tracker data shows a majority of Conservative voters (55%) supported the 2050 net zero net zero target in Oct 2024. This is echoed by a YouGov poll, which found that a majority of Tory voters are supportive of the policy.
A striking jump in net zero support was seen amongst Conservative voters last year too, with levels of support rising from 59% (amongst 2019 Tory voters) in April to 76% (amongst 2024 Tory voters) in July – before leveling out again.
While this could partly be attributed to changes in the electorate – such as right-leaning voters switching to Reform – that’s not the whole story. In 2024 July polling, both 2019 and 2024 Conservative voters showed higher support for net zero, with approval for the target rising to 65% and 76%, respectively at the time.
MPs overwhelmingly support net zero
Ditching support for the 2050 net zero target also puts the Tory leadership out of step with parliament on an issue previously seen as a cross-party consensus. MPs across the political spectrum continue to support net zero, with 90% of MPs backing the target, and just 6% opposing (according to our Oct 2024 tracker data). This follows a high-point of 94% support amongst all MPs in July last year.
Badenoch’s stance could put the Tory leadership out of touch with her own MPs as well. Climate Barometer polling from April 2024 showed that out of 55 Tory MPs polled at the time, 70% supported net zero, and 23% opposed.
Sam Hall, Director of the Conservative Environment Network (CEN), who represent a caucus of 50 Conservative MPs, described the decision as a “mistake” that “undermines the significant environmental legacy of successive Conservative governments who provided the outline of a credible plan for tackling climate change”.
Will the move alienate the wider electorate?
Public polling has consistently shown majority support for the 2050 net zero target, with a majority of voters backing the policy over the past two years. In 2024 there was an uptick in public support around the time of the general election, while YouGov polling on the day of Badenoch’s speech found 61% of people in Great Britain support net zero.
Tellingly though, in her speech, Badenoch claimed that net zero cannot be achieved by 2050 “without a serious drop in our living standards or by bankrupting us” (a statement which has since been factchecked).
In embracing one of the Reform Party’s key attack lines on net zero – Badenoch was likely courting Reform voters. But even among this group (the least likely to back green policies), the evidence is mixed.
Polling in the wake of Badenoch’s speech showed Reform voters were the only group opposed to the 2025 net zero target. This is consistent with the party’s tactics of bringing the concept of net zero – which has limited understanding amongst the public – into a wider culture war strategy.
But other research, including by More in Common, has found that when questions focus on the substance underneath the net zero concept it’s a different picture – with a majority of Reform voters positive about renewable energy.
‘Net zero’ has made national headlines in September, with an Energy Security and Net Zero committee report recommending that the government stop talking about net zero, to Prime Minister Andy Burnham reaffirming the policy, a few hours later, explicitly stating the need for the UK to reach net zero by 2050.
Our latest data shows that holding steady is the right move, with net zero still receiving majority support among the public and MPs, and even trending upward slightly.
While it is clear that ‘net zero’ is not the most compelling communications phrase, it is also apparent that the public understand and are willing to support it, especially when linked back to its purpose, to address climate change. Rather than ditching the term, our work suggests that talking about the government’s net zero target is best done when connected to compelling reasons ‘why’, and clear explanations for ‘how’ it can be achieved.
New MP polling as Burnham enters Number 10
As Andy Burnham takes office as Prime Minister, our latest wave of MP data reveals that most remain firmly behind climate policies.