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Labour’s first 100 days in office have been critical for crystallising the new government’s agenda on climate. But exactly how green is the new cohort of MPs?
It’s very possible that this is the greenest parliament ever – at least in terms of levels of support for climate policies, as reported today in politics.co.uk. Climate Barometer polling (in collaboration with ECIU) shows that since the general election 77% of MPs think the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to climate change action, regardless of what countries like the USA and China do (up from 51% in April). And 94% of MPs support the aim of reaching net zero by 2050 (up from 76% in a poll of the previous parliament in April).
Support for renewable energy sources amongst MPs has increased to their highest levels in 18 months of polling – 93% now favour offshore wind and 85% solar – while support for oil, coal and natural gas declined to their lowest levels.
These are significant positive shifts, reflecting a government with a large majority and ambitious targets for decarbonising the energy system.
Climate underestimated
Ed Milliband has correctly emphasised that Great British Energy is “overwhelmingly backed by the public”. It’s one of Labour’s most popular policies with 64% of the public supporting the concept of a nationally owned clean energy company that delivers zero carbon power by 2030.
But the role that climate played in the election was underestimated by MPs.
Only 8% of MPs thought climate was important in driving the election result, whereas 19% of voters said that climate change was one of the issues that was important to their vote. Within this, 47% of Greens voters and 32% of Lib Dem voters cited climate change as a key issue. And of those who tactically voted Labour (33%), 43% said they would have voted Green, if they felt they could.
A separate poll of 1,000 former Conservative voters found that a third would be more likely to support the party again if it adopted more ambitious climate policies.
Divergent energy
However, despite the overall and overwhelming support for net zero, there is of course still some divergence among parties, and some hints of gaps emerging between MPs and the public (note: interpret with caution as the proportion of Conservative MPs is much lower in the new parliament, which affects sample sizes).
The majority of MPs think renewables are cheaper (61%) and better for the country’s energy security (77%) than coal, oil, and gas. But this includes only 22% of Conservative MPs who think that renewables are cheaper, and only 26% of Conservative MPs who think renewables are better for the country’s energy security – out of step with the rest of parliament, and the public (of whom 57% felt renewables were better for the country’s energy security).
When asked about the best way to ensure the UK’s energy security, there was an almost 30% point increase in MPs overall selecting “reduce our use of fossil fuels altogether and instead expand our use of renewable energy such as wind and solar”, compared to the previous parliament (76%). This figure matches the steady average of 60% of support from the public.
But when broken down by party, reducing the use of fossil fuels (to ensure energy security) is supported by 90% of Labour MPs and 88% of Lib Dems and ‘Other’ MPs, but only 20% of Conservative MPs. Conservative MPs were more likely to choose ‘to increase our supply of oil and gas’ instead. Although sample size is a factor here – the much smaller number of Conservative MPs in parliament means the views of individual MPs may be influencing the group percentages – this points to a stark difference of perspective on energy security.
In other findings, 73% of MPs think it’ll cost too much not to tackle climate change now, compared to 46% from April – a big increase. But for the public, agreement that it costs too much to tackle climate change right now (and we should be prioritising other things) is at its highest level yet since Oct 2022.
To be clear, voters are still much more willing to accept the costs of action on climate change over the costs of climate inaction, but their enthusiasm (relative to MPs) has waned a little.
Keeping their ears to the ground
Where gaps are emerging between the views of MPs, and those of their voters, listening to constituents (and not just the loud or angry minority) is critical. As the figure above shows, politicians more than ever need to show voters that climate policies can be cost effective and deliver benefits, to continue to keep voters on side.
And although there have been high-profile examples of local debates being weaponized, the contentiousness of clean air zones or low-traffic neighbourhoods can be overestimated.
This doesn’t mean that the concerns of local communities (around new energy infrastructure or changes to transport in cities) shouldn’t be heard and respectfully engaged with, but the country isn’t awash with ‘blockers’ or ‘NIMBYs’.
A divisive COP30 ended last week with tripled funding for adaptation (though a delay on timeline), and roadmaps to end fossil fuels and deforestation being channelled to processes outside of the UN.
Despite the absence of the USA and China not wanting ‘to lead alone’, Climate Barometer data, featured in Business Green last week shows that the UK public continues to think that the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing (43%). 31% think that the UK should not take steps to address climate change until other bigger countries like the US and China agree to do the same.
And on the whole, MPs and the public still recognise that climate change is a shared global responsibility. 61% of UK MPs and 44% of the public say that when it comes to climate action, countries that individually account for less than 1% of global emissions, collectively have a broadly equal responsibility to big emitters like China.
There is a noticeable perception gap between Conservative MPs and their constituencies, where only 18% of MPs believe that (individually) ‘lower emitting’ countries have a (collective) responsibility equal to China, compared to 42% of their supporters. By contrast, Labour MPs and supporters largely agree on shared responsibility.
“The UK might ‘only’ account for under 1% of global emissions, but we are also less than 1% of the global population – that’s the kind of basic principle of fairness that most people can get behind”.
Adam Corner (quoted in Business Green).
China’s carbon emissions are a notorious talking point for opponents of climate action, who argue that the efforts of countries like the UK are insignificant in the context of much larger nations like China.
But in some important ways, China is a world leader: the country’s emissions appear to be plateauing, and are paired with an investment in renewables (and the components required for the clean energy supply chain) that is unparalleled.
This is not a zero sum game—British voters expect more ambition at home, but also more ambition abroad: As Climate Barometer data shows, the public is still much more likely than not to say the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing.
So, despite the USA’s absence from this year’s global climate talks and executive orders to leave the Paris Agreement for the second time, 3 in 5 Britons (60%) think that the UK government should work together more closely with other countries to address climate change.
In the run up to this year’s party conference, Reform party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, urged investors to halt new offshore wind projects, despite news of a record high in green energy approvals. Labour condemned the move as “outrageous and unpatriotic,” warning it undermines investor confidence. But does Reform’s stance align with wider opinion?
Support for offshore wind remains very high in the UK – around three quarters of the public consistently have supported this form of renewable energy over recent years. Even Reform’s support is strong, with the majority of the party’s backers expressing a favourable view of offshore wind (60%). This support extends to other renewables infrastructure too – such as solar power (68%).
A majority of Reform backers also say they would support such new renewables in their own areas as well – 55% would support onshore wind farms, 58% solar energy parks, and 51% would support new pylons and power lines for carrying renewable energy. Part of the issue here is the ‘perception gap’ around renewables – while 3 in 5 Brits support local renewable energy infrastructure projects, neither MPs nor the public realise how strong that support is.