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Political Leadership

MP polling: Is this the greenest parliament ever?

14 October 2024

Labour’s first 100 days in office have been critical for crystallising the new government’s agenda on climate. But exactly how green is the new cohort of MPs?

It’s very possible that this is the greenest parliament ever – at least in terms of levels of support for climate policies, as reported today in politics.co.uk. Climate Barometer polling (in collaboration with ECIU) shows that since the general election 77% of MPs think the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to climate change action, regardless of what countries like the USA and China do (up from 51% in April). And 94% of MPs support the aim of reaching net zero by 2050 (up from 76% in a poll of the previous parliament in April). 

Support for renewable energy sources amongst MPs has increased to their highest levels in 18 months of polling – 93% now favour offshore wind and 85% solar – while support for oil, coal and natural gas declined to their lowest levels. 

These are significant positive shifts, reflecting a government with a large majority and ambitious targets for decarbonising the energy system.

Climate underestimated

Ed Milliband has correctly emphasised that Great British Energy is “overwhelmingly backed by the public”. It’s one of Labour’s most popular policies with 64% of the public supporting the concept of a nationally owned clean energy company that delivers zero carbon power by 2030. 

But the role that climate played in the election was underestimated by MPs. 

Only 8% of MPs thought climate was important in driving the election result, whereas 19% of voters said that climate change was one of the issues that was important to their vote. Within this, 47% of Greens voters and 32% of Lib Dem voters cited climate change as a key issue. And of those who tactically voted Labour (33%), 43% said they would have voted Green, if they felt they could.

A separate poll of 1,000 former Conservative voters found that a third would be more likely to support the party again if it adopted more ambitious climate policies. 

Divergent energy

However, despite the overall and overwhelming support for net zero, there is of course still some divergence among parties, and some hints of gaps emerging between MPs and the public (note: interpret with caution as the proportion of Conservative MPs is much lower in the new parliament, which affects sample sizes). 

The majority of MPs think renewables are cheaper (61%) and better for the country’s energy security (77%) than coal, oil, and gas. But this includes only 22% of Conservative MPs who think that renewables are cheaper, and only 26% of Conservative MPs who think renewables are better for the country’s energy security – out of step with the rest of parliament, and the public (of whom 57% felt renewables were better for the country’s energy security). 

When asked about the best way to ensure the UK’s energy security, there was an almost 30% point increase in MPs overall selecting “reduce our use of fossil fuels altogether and instead expand our use of renewable energy such as wind and solar”, compared to the previous parliament (76%). This figure matches the steady average of 60% of support from the public. 

But when broken down by party, reducing the use of fossil fuels (to ensure energy security) is supported by 90% of Labour MPs and 88% of Lib Dems and ‘Other’ MPs, but only 20% of Conservative MPs. Conservative MPs were more likely to choose ‘to increase our supply of oil and gas’ instead. Although sample size is a factor here – the much smaller number of Conservative MPs in parliament means the views of individual MPs may be influencing the group percentages – this points to a stark difference of perspective on energy security. 

In other findings, 73% of MPs think it’ll cost too much not to tackle climate change now, compared to 46% from April – a big increase. But for the public, agreement that it costs too much to tackle climate change right now (and we should be prioritising other things) is at its highest level yet since Oct 2022.

To be clear, voters are still much more willing to accept the costs of action on climate change over the costs of climate inaction, but their enthusiasm (relative to MPs) has waned a little. 

Keeping their ears to the ground

Where gaps are emerging between the views of MPs, and those of their voters, listening to constituents (and not just the loud or angry minority) is critical. As the figure above shows, politicians more than ever need to show voters that climate policies can be cost effective and deliver benefits, to continue to keep voters on side.

And although there have been high-profile examples of local debates being weaponized, the contentiousness of clean air zones or low-traffic neighbourhoods can be overestimated.

This doesn’t mean that the concerns of local communities (around new energy infrastructure or changes to transport in cities) shouldn’t be heard and respectfully engaged with, but the country isn’t awash with ‘blockers’ or ‘NIMBYs’.

The latest from the Political Leadership timeline:

Opinion Insight 7th October 2024

New study: Political leaders’ actions can inspire behavioural change

New research has revealed that politicians visibly ‘leading by example’ can substantially increase the willingness of members of the UK public to adopt further low-carbon lifestyle changes.

The study looked at over a thousand people’s responses to the examples of  ‘high-profile individuals’ in a nationally representative survey. It found that the vast majority (86%) wanted to see politicians, celebrities and business leaders setting a good example in terms of their climate actions. Citizens were also more willing to adopt low-carbon actions, such as flying less, eating less meat, or driving an electric car if they saw leaders doing the same. At the same time, people’s overall approval of leaders who were setting a strong example improved.

Despite this, further investigation showed that politicians may currently be reluctant to publicise their personal climate-friendly actions due to fear of criticism for virtue signaling, or hypocrisy.

Together the work suggests that rather than pulling off ‘green stunts’, politicians’ consistency of action over time is crucial, and it can also be beneficial if they acknowledge that some changes may be too difficult or costly for everyone to make (such as buying an electric car or installing a heat pump).

Policy Insight 12th July 2024

New Labour government announces planning reforms to increase onshore wind development

In a widely anticipated move, the new Labour government announced reforms to the planning system which make the development of onshore wind farms easier (the previous Conservative government had a def-facto ‘ban’ in place).

Onshore wind is a very popular form of energy, which people across the political spectrum support. Whilst reforms of the planning system remove an important barrier to the development of onshore wind farms, early (and inclusive) community engagement is also a critical piece of the puzzle.

YouGov carried out polling just after the July 4th General Election, focused on the planning reforms Labour had announced. Whilst building houses on the ‘green belt’ provoked across-the-board opposition, building green infrastructure was widely popular:

Six in ten (60%) Britons favour ending the current ban in England on building new onshore wind farms, with more strongly supporting such an overturn (30%) than opposing it to any degree (23%). Not only can this policy count on the support of at least half of all groups, it is the most popular of Labour’s proposed reforms among Conservative voters, with 54% in favour of scrapping the ban.

 

  • Source: GOV.UK
  • Date: 8th July 2024
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