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The UK is already experiencing serious climate impacts, including floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts. The 2015-16 winter floods alone cost the UK an estimated £1.6bn, and summer 2022 saw temperatures exceed 40C for the first time, resulting in the highest number of UK deaths from heat extremes.
The number of people who recognise that climate change is happening ‘here and now’ has steadily risen.
But despite more and more extreme weather events taking place, a sense of disconnection remains in the UK: heatwaves continue to be represented in the media as positive occurrences, and the government’s advisers on adapting to climate change have repeatedly warned that the country is poorly prepared for the increased risks from floods, extreme heat, and storms.
Few will have failed to notice global changes in extreme weather: floods wreaking destruction in Pakistan and North Africa; unprecedented wildfires in Canada.
But are opinions keeping pace with a rapidly changing climate?
The National Trust – with a huge portfolio of land and historic properties that faces a wide range of risks from a changing climate – has released a report which includes a call for a new Climate Resilience Bill, putting adaptation on the same footing as mitigation (which they argue has a ‘unifying focus’ on net zero).
Research shows that people beyond specialist circles do not make a clear distinction between mitigation and adaptation, and see worsening climate impacts as one of the most motivating reasons for decarbonising faster. When asked directly whether the UK government should prioritise adaptation or mitigation, the most popular answer (around half of the survey respondents) in a 2020 poll was that both should be of equal focus.
A new report explores the personal experiences of climate change by people of colour in the UK.
Charles Ogunbode and colleagues report that awareness (and reported experience) of climate change is high: 92% of British people of colour believe that climate change is happening, 61% report experiencing impacts of climate change, and 85% are really worried about the impact of climate change in places other than the UK.
The impacts of climate change experienced by British people of colour in the UK include heat waves (over 60%), severe snow disruptions (25%) and flooding in their local area (20%).
Beyond self-reported experiences of extreme weather, some disproportionate effects of climate change are harder to document – the report notes that London’s Black African and Caribbean population are the most exposed to air pollution, which causes approximately 40,000 deaths per year in the UK, and contributes to many adverse health conditions.
Reviewing research on climate adaptation behaviours, a report prepared by the CAST centre for the Climate Change Committee concluded that most people know very little about how they can prepare for changes such as extreme heat, droughts, or flooding. The authors highlight that it is important for politicians to clearly communicate what types of behaviours are most effective in preparing for a changing climate, and provide advice tailored to the type of risk, alongside other measures like financial incentives for homeowners.
June-August 2023 was the “warmest on record globally by a large margin, with an average temperature of 16.77°C, 0.66°C above average.” In addition “August 2023 was the warmest August on record globally, and warmer than all other months except July 2023”.
A paper by researchers in the USA has tested narratives about climate change and migration. They found that:
…reading about climate-induced immigration (vs. immigration not linked to climate change) did not change participants’ climate concerns or climate policy support. Instead, reading about climate-induced immigration resulted in more negative attitudes toward immigrants.
The research matches similar findings across the UK and Europe showing that attitudes towards migration can’t be used as a ‘tool’ to boost climate concern (and many argue on ethical grounds that the link shouldn’t be ‘weaponised’ in this way). At best they have no impact on climate policy support, and at worst, they can backfire by increasing anti-immigration sentiment.
There are many actions that people may carry out to minimise the impacts of heatwaves and extreme heat: from personal protective actions during heat events (e.g. using a fan, lighter clothing), preparative measures (e.g. installing blinds or shutters), and other actions, like seeking out more information, moving location, or engaging in political action.
A new review paper shows that a very broad range of factors influence these behaviours, as well as perceptions about heat.
This includes contextual factors (like geography, physical environment and cultural influences), as well as personal level factors (like knowledge and awareness of risks, past experiences of heat, and pre-existing health conditions).
Communication about heat risks can do much to draw on these influences – including tailoring warning messages to resonate with personal factors, drawing on the role of trusted messengers and clearly attributing risks to climate change.
According to a poll commissioned by the British Red Cross, four in five people (81%) don’t know where to get information on floods from, and one-in-seven people were aware of what actions to take in response to a flood. This is despite nearly 2 million people across the UK currently live in areas at significant risk of flooding – a number that could double by the 2050s.
According to research on the media coverage of European heatwaves in 2019, the images appearing in news media about heatwaves and extreme heat generally depict people having “fun in the sun”, across the UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands. People were depicted having fun in or near water, and enjoying the weather. When images did show the dangers of heat extremes, people were generally absent.
The authors highlight this is a problematic way of showing heatwaves, because it removes the human element of extreme heat risk, and marginalises the experiences of those who are particularly vulnerable.
Grounded in an analysis of the online discourse around the sweltering summer of 2022 in the UK, ACT Climate Labs issued guidance for anticipating and responding to misinformation around extreme weather, as well as engaging the ‘Persuadable’ 60% of the population who are neither highly engaged nor antagonistic towards climate action.
Echoing earlier work by Climate Outreach around flood risks and communication, ACT Climate Labs recommend not focusing too much on climate during a heatwave (this can be off-putting or appear judgmental/spoiling people’s positive experiences of warmer weather) but using the period of increased climate salience that follows extreme weather to engage audiences then.
The summer of 2022 in the UK saw numerous temperature milestones breached. On 19th of July, 40.3°C was recorded at Coningsby, Lincolnshire, setting a new UK and England temperature record by a margin of 1.6°C, while multiple stations across England also exceeded 40°C.
“This heatwave marked a milestone in UK climate history, with 40°C being recorded for the first time in the UK.”
“The UK’s recent extreme heat was far more intense and widespread than previous comparable heatwaves”
Using a Randomised Control Trial methodology, 10 different narratives, framed around different themes, were tested in an online survey. A narrative emphasising the proximity of climate impacts was one of the best performing, especially in terms of increasing the ‘salience’ of climate change as an issue. The narrative included content emphasising:
All over the world, climate change is already leading to dangerous weather events. Scientists agree that things will get worse if we don’t take action. In the UK, we could see coastal towns submerged by rising sea levels. Heat waves that threaten our food supply; flash floods which cause destruction on a scale never seen before. We still have time. But we simply have to change now if we want to protect our way of life for the future.
The report argues that rather than focus on the so-called ‘co-benefits’ of climate action (e.g. green jobs) it is more effective to frame messages around the threat of climate impacts (as well as protecting future generations and showing global leadership).
The Climate Just Map tool shows which places may be most disadvantaged through climate impacts.
It aims to raise awareness about how social vulnerability combined with exposure to hazards, like flooding and heat, may lead to uneven impacts in different neighbourhoods, causing climate disadvantage. The maps can be used alongside other local knowledge to identify where actions may be needed.
There are maps on flooding (river/coastal flooding and surface water flooding), and heat and fuel poverty.
New research highlights the need for people to feel empowered to prepare for and respond to climate impacts.
The research, which included interviews with flood victims, climate communication experiments, and a nationally representative survey about climate impacts found it was crucial for people to feel empowered to carry out adaptation, and believe that their behaviours will make a difference (‘efficacy’).
“In particular, [there was a] consistent influence of efficacy beliefs on climate adaptation behaviours, going beyond past work to show that different types of efficacy (self, response and collective) influence responses at personal, policy and broader social levels.”
These ‘efficacy beliefs’ were crucial to promoting climate-resilient behaviours. That means that it’s important people feel personally able to take actions, feel that climate actions will work, and believe that working together with other people will help to bring about changes.
Climate Outreach, in collaboration with Cardiff University, have published a briefing containing seven recommendations for public engagement on climate risks and adaptation, including the insight that communication on adaptation shouldn’t be divorced from messages on mitigation. The distinction is not widely recognised beyond the climate community: concerns about mitigation and adaptation reinforce each other and are perceived as two sides of the same coin