We use cookies where necessary to allow us to understand how people interact with our website and content, so that we can continue to improve our service.
We only ever receive anonymous information, and cannot track you across other websites.
View our privacy policy
Bucking expectations, Rishi Sunak called a General Election for July 4th, sending political parties and climate campaigners alike into a scramble to set the narrative.
Although climate and the environment continues to be a top five issue for many voters, it’s unlikely to dominate the election in the way the economy, immigration, security and the NHS will.
This could be taken as a positive, reflecting the broad consensus on the importance of action on climate change, and voters’ support (across the political spectrum) for reaching net zero by 2050.
Another take would be that as global average temperatures rise towards the 1.5 degrees mark, the lack of political urgency around climate change is astonishing.
One person who will try to influence the narrative – albeit from the sidelines – is Nigel Farage, supporting Reform UK in its (isolated) opposition to net zero. But while the party is not projected to win any seats, their strategy is to stoke a sense of division on green policies.
Will climate change culture war tactics win votes, or miss the mark at the General Election?
The consensus on net zero is unchanged in two years
The latest Climate Barometer tracker data, from just before the English local elections, shows that public levels of support for reaching net zero by 2050 don’t show any significant movement over the past two years. Despite an all-encompassing cost of living crisis, and Rishi Sunak’s net zero pivot last September, nothing has really moved the dial.
With the exception of Reform voters, who are outliers in opposing net zero policies, campaigners talking to voters of every party can be confident in this common ground.
This basic starting point is important, and shouldn’t be taken for granted: in many other countries a comparable consensus isn’t in place.
In Sunak’s rainy election announcement, the only reference to net zero was that the Conservatives were proud of putting energy security over “environmental dogma”. No-one likes dogma (and one less positive trend in recent years, following escalating direct action campaigns, is a rising belief that climate activists are also ‘out of touch’ with the public).
But the contrast between environmental action and energy security doesn’t hold. Most people see energy security and economic growth as more likely to come from renewables than from doubling down on oil and gas.
Don’t take the consensus for granted: stand with public opinion
This broad support is important and needs repeating throughout the election period: climate change is not a ‘wedge issue’ for voters.
But this positive starting point doesn’t mean the consensus extends to every aspect of climate policy – at least, not yet.
People have concerns about how the costs of the transition will be spread: these concerns should be represented back to politicians (not skipped past). People have reasonable questions about changes to travel patterns in cities, and the building of renewables in the countryside, that have to be taken seriously (not dismissed as NIMBYism).
Support can be built around each and every aspect of the green transition, but only if people feel heard by the climate movement: this is the best way of ensuring culture war tactics (which are designed to make people feel heard) don’t gain traction.
When the dust settles
Whoever is in power on July 5th, campaigners face a familiar dilemma: shoring up support for government policies versus pushing for greater political ambition.
This election is unlikely to be ‘won’ by parties’ positions on net zero policies: it isn’t what most people will be basing their decision on. But it won’t be won by reneging on them either: if the next parliament sees a surge in green ambition (whoever is in power), it will be with – not against – the grain of public opinion.
So long as the terms of the transition are fair, climate can be a vote winner: politicians should feel confident leading from the front.
A divisive COP30 ended last week with tripled funding for adaptation (though a delay on timeline), and roadmaps to end fossil fuels and deforestation being channelled to processes outside of the UN.
Despite the absence of the USA and China not wanting ‘to lead alone’, Climate Barometer data, featured in Business Green last week shows that the UK public continues to think that the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing (43%). 31% think that the UK should not take steps to address climate change until other bigger countries like the US and China agree to do the same.
And on the whole, MPs and the public still recognise that climate change is a shared global responsibility. 61% of UK MPs and 44% of the public say that when it comes to climate action, countries that individually account for less than 1% of global emissions, collectively have a broadly equal responsibility to big emitters like China.
There is a noticeable perception gap between Conservative MPs and their constituencies, where only 18% of MPs believe that (individually) ‘lower emitting’ countries have a (collective) responsibility equal to China, compared to 42% of their supporters. By contrast, Labour MPs and supporters largely agree on shared responsibility.
“The UK might ‘only’ account for under 1% of global emissions, but we are also less than 1% of the global population – that’s the kind of basic principle of fairness that most people can get behind”.
Adam Corner (quoted in Business Green).
China’s carbon emissions are a notorious talking point for opponents of climate action, who argue that the efforts of countries like the UK are insignificant in the context of much larger nations like China.
But in some important ways, China is a world leader: the country’s emissions appear to be plateauing, and are paired with an investment in renewables (and the components required for the clean energy supply chain) that is unparalleled.
This is not a zero sum game—British voters expect more ambition at home, but also more ambition abroad: As Climate Barometer data shows, the public is still much more likely than not to say the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing.
So, despite the USA’s absence from this year’s global climate talks and executive orders to leave the Paris Agreement for the second time, 3 in 5 Britons (60%) think that the UK government should work together more closely with other countries to address climate change.
In the run up to this year’s party conference, Reform party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, urged investors to halt new offshore wind projects, despite news of a record high in green energy approvals. Labour condemned the move as “outrageous and unpatriotic,” warning it undermines investor confidence. But does Reform’s stance align with wider opinion?
Support for offshore wind remains very high in the UK – around three quarters of the public consistently have supported this form of renewable energy over recent years. Even Reform’s support is strong, with the majority of the party’s backers expressing a favourable view of offshore wind (60%). This support extends to other renewables infrastructure too – such as solar power (68%).
A majority of Reform backers also say they would support such new renewables in their own areas as well – 55% would support onshore wind farms, 58% solar energy parks, and 51% would support new pylons and power lines for carrying renewable energy. Part of the issue here is the ‘perception gap’ around renewables – while 3 in 5 Brits support local renewable energy infrastructure projects, neither MPs nor the public realise how strong that support is.