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A review of Conservative’s net zero sentiment, as Kemi Badenoch rolls back her party’s commitment to the 2050 target.
Kemi Badenoch has announced that her party is dropping its commitment to reach net zero by 2050, as part of the Conservatives’ biggest policy review in a generation. The Tory leader argued that getting to Britain’s legally binding climate target would be “impossible”, while abandoning one of the Conservatives most significant green policies.
Former PM, Theresa May, who ushered in the net zero target, immediately criticised the move saying that “delaying action will only harm the next generation and increase both the economic and social costs of climate change”.
But is Kemi’s ‘climate impossibilism’ out of step with her own party’s climate opinion?
Conservative voters are in favour of the net zero target
The decision is not only a wholesale reversal of Badenoch’s 2022 speech, where she highlighted the “opportunity, growth, and revitalized communities” of the clean energy transition, which she called a “future-proofing force” for a better tomorrow – but it also puts the Tory leadership out of touch with her own voters, parliament, and the wider electorate.
Climate Barometer tracker data shows a majority of Conservative voters (55%) supported the 2050 net zero net zero target in Oct 2024. This is echoed by a YouGov poll, which found that a majority of Tory voters are supportive of the policy.
A striking jump in net zero support was seen amongst Conservative voters last year too, with levels of support rising from 59% (amongst 2019 Tory voters) in April to 76% (amongst 2024 Tory voters) in July – before leveling out again.
While this could partly be attributed to changes in the electorate – such as right-leaning voters switching to Reform – that’s not the whole story. In 2024 July polling, both 2019 and 2024 Conservative voters showed higher support for net zero, with approval for the target rising to 65% and 76%, respectively at the time.
MPs overwhelmingly support net zero
Ditching support for the 2050 net zero target also puts the Tory leadership out of step with parliament on an issue previously seen as a cross-party consensus. MPs across the political spectrum continue to support net zero, with 90% of MPs backing the target, and just 6% opposing (according to our Oct 2024 tracker data). This follows a high-point of 94% support amongst all MPs in July last year.
Badenoch’s stance could put the Tory leadership out of touch with her own MPs as well. Climate Barometer polling from April 2024 showed that out of 55 Tory MPs polled at the time, 70% supported net zero, and 23% opposed.
Sam Hall, Director of the Conservative Environment Network (CEN), who represent a caucus of 50 Conservative MPs, described the decision as a “mistake” that “undermines the significant environmental legacy of successive Conservative governments who provided the outline of a credible plan for tackling climate change”.
Will the move alienate the wider electorate?
Public polling has consistently shown majority support for the 2050 net zero target, with a majority of voters backing the policy over the past two years. In 2024 there was an uptick in public support around the time of the general election, while YouGov polling on the day of Badenoch’s speech found 61% of people in Great Britain support net zero.
Tellingly though, in her speech, Badenoch claimed that net zero cannot be achieved by 2050 “without a serious drop in our living standards or by bankrupting us” (a statement which has since been factchecked).
In embracing one of the Reform Party’s key attack lines on net zero – Badenoch was likely courting Reform voters. But even among this group (the least likely to back green policies), the evidence is mixed.
Polling in the wake of Badenoch’s speech showed Reform voters were the only group opposed to the 2025 net zero target. This is consistent with the party’s tactics of bringing the concept of net zero – which has limited understanding amongst the public – into a wider culture war strategy.
But other research, including by More in Common, has found that when questions focus on the substance underneath the net zero concept it’s a different picture – with a majority of Reform voters positive about renewable energy.
China’s carbon emissions are a notorious talking point for opponents of climate action, who argue that the efforts of countries like the UK are insignificant in the context of much larger nations like China.
But in some important ways, China is a world leader: the country’s emissions appear to be plateauing, and are paired with an investment in renewables (and the components required for the clean energy supply chain) that is unparalleled.
This is not a zero sum game—British voters expect more ambition at home, but also more ambition abroad: As Climate Barometer data shows, the public is still much more likely than not to say the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing.
So, despite the USA’s absence from this year’s global climate talks and executive orders to leave the Paris Agreement for the second time, 3 in 5 Britons (60%) think that the UK government should work together more closely with other countries to address climate change.
In the run up to this year’s party conference, Reform party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, urged investors to halt new offshore wind projects, despite news of a record high in green energy approvals. Labour condemned the move as “outrageous and unpatriotic,” warning it undermines investor confidence. But does Reform’s stance align with wider opinion?
Support for offshore wind remains very high in the UK – around three quarters of the public consistently have supported this form of renewable energy over recent years. Even Reform’s support is strong, with the majority of the party’s backers expressing a favourable view of offshore wind (60%). This support extends to other renewables infrastructure too – such as solar power (68%).
A majority of Reform backers also say they would support such new renewables in their own areas as well – 55% would support onshore wind farms, 58% solar energy parks, and 51% would support new pylons and power lines for carrying renewable energy. Part of the issue here is the ‘perception gap’ around renewables – while 3 in 5 Brits support local renewable energy infrastructure projects, neither MPs nor the public realise how strong that support is.
Kemi Badenoch doubled down on her party’s net zero rollbacks – pledging to get all oil and gas out of the North Sea, and remove net zero requirements on oil and gas companies drilling in the region – if elected. But is the Conservative leader’s stance at odds with wider public opinion?
Climate Barometer data shows that just 8% of Britons see oil and gas as one of the biggest growth sectors over the next five years – compared to 35% who say this about renewable energy and clean technology. This is consistent across UK regions, with only 10% of those in Scotland thinking of oil and gas as one of the top growth sectors in the near future, compared to 39% who say this about renewables.
But the Conservative leader’s position appears to not just be at odds with the wider public – Conservative voters themselves don’t show much faith in fossil fuels as a growing industry either. While there have been some recent shifts, only 14% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 think of the oil and gas sector as showing the biggest growth opportunity for the UK in the next five years. This is roughly half the amount of Conservative voters who say renewables and clean tech are the biggest growing sector (27%), and much less than the amount who think artificial intelligence will grow at pace (43%).
The majority of Britons (55%) think that the best way to ensure the UK’s energy security is to reduce the use of fossil fuels and expand use of renewable energy (such as wind and solar). In comparison, only 24% of the UK public think that increasing the supply of oil and gas by allowing new oil and gas exploration licences, as proposed by Kemi Badenoch on Monday, would be the best way to ensure the UK’s energy security.