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Knowledge of COPs is limited, and there is scepticism about whether the promises made at international meetings are being kept – but voters still want and expect to see British climate leadership on the world stage.
In the UK, there’s a widespread belief that climate change demands international cooperation: many (although not all) parts of society understand climate change as a ‘shared global crisis’. There is an appreciation of the need for collaboration with other nations to tackle climate, and for support of poorer nations.
A majority want the government to play a leadership role in setting ambitious global targets. And there is some evidence that during COP26 – hosted by the UK in Glasgow in 2021 – among public audiences there was a relatively optimistic sense of progress being made.
But COP26 may have been an anomaly, as by the time COP27 came around only a minority (24%) felt that Rishi Sunak was showing leadership: his hesitation around attending in person, so early in his premiership, is likely to have influenced this judgement.
Many people in the UK were sceptical that COP27 would speed up climate action, a trend that has continued in the run-up to COP28.
Although the UK public reports feeling more familiar with international climate conferences (relative to other national populations), knowledge is still likely to be very limited, and scepticism about the purpose, nature and effectiveness of international climate conferences is prevalent.
It makes sense, then, that people feel that claims of UK leadership must be well evidenced in order to be credible. Having explored the meaning of COPs with one British audience segment in 2021, the patriotic ‘Loyal Nationals’, Climate Outreach found that explaining the value and purpose of negotiations is crucial, and the actions of leaders (i.e. if they ‘practice domestically what they preach internationally’) is also a big influence on whether negotiations are given credence by the public.
China’s carbon emissions are a notorious talking point for opponents of climate action, who argue that the efforts of countries like the UK are insignificant in the context of much larger nations like China.
But in some important ways, China is a world leader: the country’s emissions appear to be plateauing, and are paired with an investment in renewables (and the components required for the clean energy supply chain) that is unparalleled.
This is not a zero sum game—British voters expect more ambition at home, but also more ambition abroad: As Climate Barometer data shows, the public is still much more likely than not to say the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing.
So, despite the USA’s absence from this year’s global climate talks and executive orders to leave the Paris Agreement for the second time, 3 in 5 Britons (60%) think that the UK government should work together more closely with other countries to address climate change.
Keir Starmer made a fleeting visit to Brazil, ahead of the opening of COP30. But is the British public paying attention?
Recent More in Common data shows COP isn’t top-of-mind for most people (only 8% say they are ‘very aware’ of the conference), and there is a sense of ‘summit fatigue’. But despite growing weariness with the glacial pace of change, Britons still see the UN as the best-placed body to lead action on global issues like climate change.
People all over the world want climate action that is genuinely inclusive, as evidenced by the level of engagement with the People’s Summit in the run up to COP30. This year there is a push to create a ‘Citizens Track’ to more formally build in public opinion to the COP process. Combatting misinformation and shoring up ‘information integrity’ in climate communication is high on the agenda for the first time.
And there are some remarkable similarities in the core concerns of people around the world.
Consider Earth4All’s latest report on Brazil: the country has a pathway to eliminate poverty by 2040 while building a renewable energy powerhouse, and there is a strong mandate for action: 81% of Brazilians say major action is needed this decade to protect the climate and nature.
Yet only 35% believe their government is doing enough, and still need to be convinced policies are affordable and fair – a story familiar from patterns in British public opinion.
A report from the New Climate Institute finds that the UK has jumped the highest in its league of countries’ performance on tackling climate change, finishing behind only Denmark and the Netherlands.
While no country has performed well enough to qualify as a ‘very high’ performance, the UK’s ranking has been boosted by the new Labour government’s commitments to reduce emissions and roll out renewable energy across the country.
Despite this, the report says “the country is not on track to reach this target despite a significant reduction in 2023. While the coal exit was set for 2024, oil and gas use also need to be phased out…credible plans now only cover
one-third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target“.
Ultimately, whether the UK can remain in its high position depends on whether it can follow through on ambition with effective implementation.