We use cookies where necessary to allow us to understand how people interact with our website and content, so that we can continue to improve our service.
We only ever receive anonymous information, and cannot track you across other websites.
View our privacy policy
A review of Conservative’s net zero sentiment, as Kemi Badenoch rolls back her party’s commitment to the 2050 target.
Kemi Badenoch has announced that her party is dropping its commitment to reach net zero by 2050, as part of the Conservatives’ biggest policy review in a generation. The Tory leader argued that getting to Britain’s legally binding climate target would be “impossible”, while abandoning one of the Conservatives most significant green policies.
Former PM, Theresa May, who ushered in the net zero target, immediately criticised the move saying that “delaying action will only harm the next generation and increase both the economic and social costs of climate change”.
But is Kemi’s ‘climate impossibilism’ out of step with her own party’s climate opinion?
Conservative voters are in favour of the net zero target
The decision is not only a wholesale reversal of Badenoch’s 2022 speech, where she highlighted the “opportunity, growth, and revitalized communities” of the clean energy transition, which she called a “future-proofing force” for a better tomorrow – but it also puts the Tory leadership out of touch with her own voters, parliament, and the wider electorate.
Climate Barometer tracker data shows a majority of Conservative voters (55%) supported the 2050 net zero net zero target in Oct 2024. This is echoed by a YouGov poll, which found that a majority of Tory voters are supportive of the policy.
A striking jump in net zero support was seen amongst Conservative voters last year too, with levels of support rising from 59% (amongst 2019 Tory voters) in April to 76% (amongst 2024 Tory voters) in July – before leveling out again.
While this could partly be attributed to changes in the electorate – such as right-leaning voters switching to Reform – that’s not the whole story. In 2024 July polling, both 2019 and 2024 Conservative voters showed higher support for net zero, with approval for the target rising to 65% and 76%, respectively at the time.
MPs overwhelmingly support net zero
Ditching support for the 2050 net zero target also puts the Tory leadership out of step with parliament on an issue previously seen as a cross-party consensus. MPs across the political spectrum continue to support net zero, with 90% of MPs backing the target, and just 6% opposing (according to our Oct 2024 tracker data). This follows a high-point of 94% support amongst all MPs in July last year.
Badenoch’s stance could put the Tory leadership out of touch with her own MPs as well. Climate Barometer polling from April 2024 showed that out of 55 Tory MPs polled at the time, 70% supported net zero, and 23% opposed.
Sam Hall, Director of the Conservative Environment Network (CEN), who represent a caucus of 50 Conservative MPs, described the decision as a “mistake” that “undermines the significant environmental legacy of successive Conservative governments who provided the outline of a credible plan for tackling climate change”.
Will the move alienate the wider electorate?
Public polling has consistently shown majority support for the 2050 net zero target, with a majority of voters backing the policy over the past two years. In 2024 there was an uptick in public support around the time of the general election, while YouGov polling on the day of Badenoch’s speech found 61% of people in Great Britain support net zero.
Tellingly though, in her speech, Badenoch claimed that net zero cannot be achieved by 2050 “without a serious drop in our living standards or by bankrupting us” (a statement which has since been factchecked).
In embracing one of the Reform Party’s key attack lines on net zero – Badenoch was likely courting Reform voters. But even among this group (the least likely to back green policies), the evidence is mixed.
Polling in the wake of Badenoch’s speech showed Reform voters were the only group opposed to the 2025 net zero target. This is consistent with the party’s tactics of bringing the concept of net zero – which has limited understanding amongst the public – into a wider culture war strategy.
But other research, including by More in Common, has found that when questions focus on the substance underneath the net zero concept it’s a different picture – with a majority of Reform voters positive about renewable energy.
A report from the New Climate Institute finds that the UK has jumped the highest in its league of countries’ performance on tackling climate change, finishing behind only Denmark and the Netherlands.
While no country has performed well enough to qualify as a ‘very high’ performance, the UK’s ranking has been boosted by the new Labour government’s commitments to reduce emissions and roll out renewable energy across the country.
Despite this, the report says “the country is not on track to reach this target despite a significant reduction in 2023. While the coal exit was set for 2024, oil and gas use also need to be phased out…credible plans now only cover
one-third of the emissions reductions required to achieve the 2030 target“.
Ultimately, whether the UK can remain in its high position depends on whether it can follow through on ambition with effective implementation.
A new study of over 14000 Britons looks at how the British public see the UK’s role on climate action on the global stage. The research finds that the public wants:
In light of the results of the 2024 US election, most Britons want to see the UK either maintain (40%) or strengthen (26%) its commitments to climate change, even if President-elect Trump withdraws the USA from the Paris Agreement again.
MP polling: Is this the greenest parliament ever?
Labour’s first 100 days in office have been critical for crystallising the new government’s agenda on climate. But exactly how green is the new cohort of MPs?