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There isn’t much trust or pride in political leaders, but the public expects political leadership on climate change nonetheless.
Polls consistently show that the British public expects to see leadership from politicians on climate change, placing the responsibility for climate change at the feet of politicians over the private sector or individuals.
Our own Climate Barometer tracker data shows that voters and MPs agree that the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing. This has dropped by around 10% in 2023 for both the public and politicians, but support still comfortably outweighs opposition.
Wider polling suggests people tend to think that Britain is either doing about the same as, or more than, other countries on climate change – but a similar number say they don’t know. But few are persuaded by the argument that Britain is taking risks by ‘acting alone’.
In the run-up to COP26 – held in Glasgow and positioned as a demonstration of British climate leadership – there was a small but meaningful increase in optimism about climate change as the conference progressed. So although there is a tendency for MPs to underestimate the salience and breadth of support for climate action, visible and consistent leadership on climate can cascade positively back into public opinion.
In terms of being a persuasive argument for accelerating the net zero transition, though, invoking British leadership falls increasingly flat – likely reflecting wider dissatisfaction with the political establishment and the sense shared by many that things are headed in the ‘wrong direction’.
In our Climate Barometer tracker data (below), the argument that British climate leadership can be a source of national pride is generally unpersuasive: grand claims like this do not currently resonate with a general public that views climate (like so many issues) through an ‘anti-politics’ lens.
To be clear, this doesn’t mean that the public doesn’t want and expect political leadership on climate change, simply that politicians making strong claims to political leadership are not seen as credible in the context of politicians failing to keep their promises.
In fact, polling suggests that people feel ‘embarrassed’ by politicians who backtrack on green policies, and that the word most commonly selected by the public to describe politicians watering down net zero commitments is ‘untrustworthy’.
China’s carbon emissions are a notorious talking point for opponents of climate action, who argue that the efforts of countries like the UK are insignificant in the context of much larger nations like China.
But in some important ways, China is a world leader: the country’s emissions appear to be plateauing, and are paired with an investment in renewables (and the components required for the clean energy supply chain) that is unparalleled.
This is not a zero sum game—British voters expect more ambition at home, but also more ambition abroad: As Climate Barometer data shows, the public is still much more likely than not to say the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world when it comes to addressing climate change, regardless of what other countries are doing.
So, despite the USA’s absence from this year’s global climate talks and executive orders to leave the Paris Agreement for the second time, 3 in 5 Britons (60%) think that the UK government should work together more closely with other countries to address climate change.
In the run up to this year’s party conference, Reform party’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, urged investors to halt new offshore wind projects, despite news of a record high in green energy approvals. Labour condemned the move as “outrageous and unpatriotic,” warning it undermines investor confidence. But does Reform’s stance align with wider opinion?
Support for offshore wind remains very high in the UK – around three quarters of the public consistently have supported this form of renewable energy over recent years. Even Reform’s support is strong, with the majority of the party’s backers expressing a favourable view of offshore wind (60%). This support extends to other renewables infrastructure too – such as solar power (68%).
A majority of Reform backers also say they would support such new renewables in their own areas as well – 55% would support onshore wind farms, 58% solar energy parks, and 51% would support new pylons and power lines for carrying renewable energy. Part of the issue here is the ‘perception gap’ around renewables – while 3 in 5 Brits support local renewable energy infrastructure projects, neither MPs nor the public realise how strong that support is.
Kemi Badenoch doubled down on her party’s net zero rollbacks – pledging to get all oil and gas out of the North Sea, and remove net zero requirements on oil and gas companies drilling in the region – if elected. But is the Conservative leader’s stance at odds with wider public opinion?
Climate Barometer data shows that just 8% of Britons see oil and gas as one of the biggest growth sectors over the next five years – compared to 35% who say this about renewable energy and clean technology. This is consistent across UK regions, with only 10% of those in Scotland thinking of oil and gas as one of the top growth sectors in the near future, compared to 39% who say this about renewables.
But the Conservative leader’s position appears to not just be at odds with the wider public – Conservative voters themselves don’t show much faith in fossil fuels as a growing industry either. While there have been some recent shifts, only 14% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 think of the oil and gas sector as showing the biggest growth opportunity for the UK in the next five years. This is roughly half the amount of Conservative voters who say renewables and clean tech are the biggest growing sector (27%), and much less than the amount who think artificial intelligence will grow at pace (43%).
The majority of Britons (55%) think that the best way to ensure the UK’s energy security is to reduce the use of fossil fuels and expand use of renewable energy (such as wind and solar). In comparison, only 24% of the UK public think that increasing the supply of oil and gas by allowing new oil and gas exploration licences, as proposed by Kemi Badenoch on Monday, would be the best way to ensure the UK’s energy security.