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The UK is already experiencing serious climate impacts, including floods, storms, heatwaves and droughts. The 2015-16 winter floods alone cost the UK an estimated £1.6bn, and summer 2022 saw temperatures exceed 40C for the first time, resulting in the highest number of UK deaths from heat extremes.
The number of people who recognise that climate change is happening ‘here and now’ has steadily risen.
But despite more and more extreme weather events taking place, a sense of disconnection remains in the UK: heatwaves continue to be represented in the media as positive occurrences, and the government’s advisers on adapting to climate change have repeatedly warned that the country is poorly prepared for the increased risks from floods, extreme heat, and storms.
Few will have failed to notice global changes in extreme weather: floods wreaking destruction in Pakistan and North Africa; unprecedented wildfires in Canada.
But are opinions keeping pace with a rapidly changing climate?
Grounded in an analysis of the online discourse around the sweltering summer of 2022 in the UK, ACT Climate Labs issued guidance for anticipating and responding to misinformation around extreme weather, as well as engaging the ‘Persuadable’ 60% of the population who are neither highly engaged nor antagonistic towards climate action.
Echoing earlier work by Climate Outreach around flood risks and communication, ACT Climate Labs recommend not focusing too much on climate during a heatwave (this can be off-putting or appear judgmental/spoiling people’s positive experiences of warmer weather) but using the period of increased climate salience that follows extreme weather to engage audiences then.
The summer of 2022 in the UK saw numerous temperature milestones breached. On 19th of July, 40.3°C was recorded at Coningsby, Lincolnshire, setting a new UK and England temperature record by a margin of 1.6°C, while multiple stations across England also exceeded 40°C.
“This heatwave marked a milestone in UK climate history, with 40°C being recorded for the first time in the UK.”
“The UK’s recent extreme heat was far more intense and widespread than previous comparable heatwaves”
Using a Randomised Control Trial methodology, 10 different narratives, framed around different themes, were tested in an online survey. A narrative emphasising the proximity of climate impacts was one of the best performing, especially in terms of increasing the ‘salience’ of climate change as an issue. The narrative included content emphasising:
All over the world, climate change is already leading to dangerous weather events. Scientists agree that things will get worse if we don’t take action. In the UK, we could see coastal towns submerged by rising sea levels. Heat waves that threaten our food supply; flash floods which cause destruction on a scale never seen before. We still have time. But we simply have to change now if we want to protect our way of life for the future.
The report argues that rather than focus on the so-called ‘co-benefits’ of climate action (e.g. green jobs) it is more effective to frame messages around the threat of climate impacts (as well as protecting future generations and showing global leadership).
The Climate Just Map tool shows which places may be most disadvantaged through climate impacts.
It aims to raise awareness about how social vulnerability combined with exposure to hazards, like flooding and heat, may lead to uneven impacts in different neighbourhoods, causing climate disadvantage. The maps can be used alongside other local knowledge to identify where actions may be needed.
There are maps on flooding (river/coastal flooding and surface water flooding), and heat and fuel poverty.
New research highlights the need for people to feel empowered to prepare for and respond to climate impacts.
The research, which included interviews with flood victims, climate communication experiments, and a nationally representative survey about climate impacts found it was crucial for people to feel empowered to carry out adaptation, and believe that their behaviours will make a difference (‘efficacy’).
“In particular, [there was a] consistent influence of efficacy beliefs on climate adaptation behaviours, going beyond past work to show that different types of efficacy (self, response and collective) influence responses at personal, policy and broader social levels.”
These ‘efficacy beliefs’ were crucial to promoting climate-resilient behaviours. That means that it’s important people feel personally able to take actions, feel that climate actions will work, and believe that working together with other people will help to bring about changes.
Climate Outreach, in collaboration with Cardiff University, have published a briefing containing seven recommendations for public engagement on climate risks and adaptation, including the insight that communication on adaptation shouldn’t be divorced from messages on mitigation. The distinction is not widely recognised beyond the climate community: concerns about mitigation and adaptation reinforce each other and are perceived as two sides of the same coin
Cardiff University survey data shows an increase in risk perceptions around hot and dry weather from 2013 to 2019.
In 2013 only 23% of respondents thought heatwaves were a fairly or very serious problem. By 2019 this had increased substantially to 72% – although concern flooding is still greater.
Flooding was considered a fairly or very serious problem by almost all survey respondents (90%), closely followed by coastal erosion (88%), heavy storms (84%) and periods of heavy rainfall (83%).
The authors note that the “increase in perceptions of heat risks might be partly explained by personal experiences of heat related events (such as discomfort due to hot weather) – in the current survey 70% reported having this experience – as well as media coverage of recent heat-related events in the UK and worldwide.”
The Environment Agency report how low income households are particularly vulnerable to flood risks, and may struggle with impacts:
“Worryingly, low income households are eight times more likely to live in tidal floodplains than more affluent households, but 61% of low-income renters do not have home contents insurance, meaning they’re more susceptible to a financial shock as a result. According to data from insurance company Aviva, most low-income renters would struggle to meet typical insurable losses with nearly three quarters (73%) unable to meet an unexpected bill of £500 without help.”
This concerning analysis also highlights the risk of substantial, long-term impacts to people’s mental health due to flooding:
“Experiencing damage caused by extreme weather such as storms or flooding can increase the chance of facing mental health problems such as stress and depression by 50% while a quarter of people who have been flooded still live with these issues at least two years after the event.”
In a report that offers a critical evaluation of the Heatwave Plan for England, survey data shows that most people – including those who are most vulnerable – don’t tend to see themselves as being at risk from heat. The authors write:
Most people had positive views of hot weather, and for many it was something they looked forward to as it invoked feelings of good health and well-being. In addition, most adults did not feel that hot weather posed a risk to themselves. As a result, protective measures were often not taken, even those that people felt were effective, such as staying out of the heat and in the shade.
Only 40% of participants aged 75 or older saw themselves personally at risk of hot weather. According to many of those interviewed, risk was associated with physical and mental frailty, not age itself, and there was some resistance, even resentment, to any ‘vulnerable’ label that may be applied to them in this context, as they did not consider themselves ‘frail’.
An article by Petra Tschakert and colleagues synthesises the depth and breadth of tangible and intangible losses that people around the world may experience as a result of climate change. Key takeaways include:
