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Scotland has a net zero policy framework that is more ambitious than the UK’s overall targets.
Polling by PanelBase (commissioned by The Times) found Scottish public opinion on delaying the phase out of gas boilers and the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles was broadly in line with wider UK patterns, with support for delaying current heating targets slightly higher (45%) than opposition (38%), and support for delaying the petrol/diesel vehicle phase out date higher (51%) than opposition (38%).
The wording of the question participants were asked on gas boilers was, however, misleading, with people asked if they supported or opposed “Rishi Sunak’s decision to scrap the phasing out of gas boilers?”
The policy has not been scrapped – the phase out date has been extended.
Combined with the ‘scrapping’ of policies that did not in fact exist in Sunak’s September speech (e.g. a ‘meat tax’), there’s a pattern of using terms like ‘ban’ ‘scrap’ and ‘phase out’ interchangeably in a way that’s likely to mislead voters, and in this case potentially skew assessments of public opinion.
Climate Barometer tracker data provides a clear signal over time on key net zero policies like the phasing out of petrol/diesel vehicles and gas boilers.
In a straightforward rejection of the central claim behind the government’s announcements in September 2023 of delays to key net zero targets – that the changes would save households money – the Climate Change Committee issued a response emphasising that the changes would in fact make net zero harder to achieve, as well as be more costly. Explore the Climate Barometer narrative thread on climate policies, public opinion and the costs of living here.
The Climate Change Committee wrote:
The cancellation of some Net Zero measures is likely to increase both energy bills and motoring costs for households – households who are also facing increasing impacts from climate change. Electric vehicles will be significantly cheaper than petrol and diesel vehicles to own and operate over their lifetimes, so any undermining of their roll-out will ultimately increase costs. The cancellation of regulations on the private-rented sector will lead to higher household energy bills
Research conducted in the US media market shows that only 0.56% of scripts on TV and films mention the term “climate change”. In the UK, the story may be slightly more positive, though there is still progress to be made. Research by albert looking at TV representations of climate change in 2020, found that “[w]hile terms describing the issue – climate change, climate emergency and climate crisis – had 14,540 mentions, those referring to tackling the problem – the term was used less frequently than “cake” and “dog”.
In recent years, the British Film Industry has declared a climate emergency and pledged to take action within the sector. Twelve broadcasters have also signed the Climate Content Pledge, convened by albert, to commit to using content to inspire and inform audiences about climate change.
Good Energy Stories published a report outlining how there is audience demand for climate storylines and characters who match their concern for climate change in the US.
Recommendations include: showing climate content in a variety of genres, beyond only dramas, connecting the dots between climate change and its causes and impacts, giving voice to climate anxiety, showing intersections with overlapping crises, and showing realistic actions being taken.
As Good Energy Stories write: “portraying behaviors on-screen can shift cultural norms and lead to real change. Decades of research in media psychology show that what we watch on-screen has an impact on our lives—whether it’s our body image, our desensitization to violence, or even the kind of wine we drink“.
A wide-ranging analysis from the centre for Climate Change & Social Transformations (CAST) on behalf of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) reveals that substantial behaviour change is required across society to reach the UK’s ambitious net-zero 2050 target, with 60% of reductions needing to come from (or at least be endorsed by) consumers
In a series of recommendations for mainstreaming behaviour change approaches as part of the UK’s approach to climate policy, the report argues that:
The provision of information is important in some circumstances – for example for young people choosing a green career – and can provide a rationale for wider policy interventions. But the provision of information alone is not enough to shift consumption behaviours in society
Climate policies which are perceived to be fair are more likely to be acceptable to the public.
The public largely support a reduction in the consumption of red meat and dairy, with many already reducing their consumption of beef, pork and dairy products…altering the food environment, for example by taxing high-carbon foods, labelling, subsidising meat-free options, and increasing plant-based options, would be likely to encourage further (and more equitable) behaviour change
Many of those who fly are reluctant to reduce their air travel because of its associations with pleasure, freedom, and social status (although recent studies suggest social norms around flying may be shifting). Strategies targeting individuals, such as increasing climate awareness or concern don’t typically result in behaviour change when it comes to air travel.
However, a Frequent Flyer Levy or Frequent Air Miles Tax have the potential to be effective in reducing aviation demand and to be perceived as fair by the public.
YouGov polling in October 2023 (during the Labour Party conference) shows more support (50%) than opposition (31%) for decarbonising the electricity supply by 2030. Among Conservative party voters, the balance of support-opposition is reversed.
Whilst this level of support is lower than that generally seen for renewables (which is typically more than 70%), the 2030 target is a policy goal that some industry figures consider ambitious and will require – as analysis by Public First into the infrastructure required to decarbonise the grid has shown – ‘hitting the ground running’ if Labour takes power at the next election.
A report seeking to spotlight how people of colour experience and engage with climate change in Britain finds that people of colour show very high levels of personal engagement with climate actions (73% having changed their lifestyles in response to climate change).
Despite this, many still face barriers to action:
“The single most commonly reported barrier was other things taking up people’s time and energy (82%). Perceived insufficiency of climate awareness or knowledge (80%), difficulty or inconvenience of climate actions (77%), and perceived inefficacy of individual action (73%), were also commonly reported to be significant barriers to taking individual action on climate change”
A new report explores the personal experiences of climate change by people of colour in the UK.
Charles Ogunbode and colleagues report that awareness (and reported experience) of climate change is high: 92% of British people of colour believe that climate change is happening, 61% report experiencing impacts of climate change, and 85% are really worried about the impact of climate change in places other than the UK.
The impacts of climate change experienced by British people of colour in the UK include heat waves (over 60%), severe snow disruptions (25%) and flooding in their local area (20%).
Beyond self-reported experiences of extreme weather, some disproportionate effects of climate change are harder to document – the report notes that London’s Black African and Caribbean population are the most exposed to air pollution, which causes approximately 40,000 deaths per year in the UK, and contributes to many adverse health conditions.
Public First conducted a poll between 27 September and 2 October 2022 with a sample of 2,000 British adults, and ran four focus groups. They found:
This map of onshore fossil fuel extraction sites shows several operating opencast coal mines and dozens of oil and gas sites across England and Wales with hundreds of operational wells between them.
The latest Climate Barometer tracker data (October 2023) shows that:
Public First and Onward tested the support of 24 policies which would cut greenhouse gas emissions (some were existing government policies and some were not). All 24 received net-positive ratings looking across all voters, with energy efficiency measures, ramping up renewables (wind and solar), incentivising green home upgrades, planting trees, investment in public transport, and policies to help people switch to electric cars all proving highly popular.
Conservative voters currently did not support the phasing out of sales of new petrol/diesel cars by 2030 or gas boilers by 2035, but the report argues that:
Importantly, opposition is to targets and deadlines rather than the technologies
Understanding which net zero policies are consistently popular among the electorate is as important as understanding what the current barriers to support are for less popular policies: ‘win win’ ideas such as incentivising home upgrades/rolling out insulation are a way to hold the net zero conversation with voters on less contentious ground than, for example, low traffic neighbourhoods.
Polling by Public First and analysed by Onward, paints an important picture of how the public thinks about green policies in the context of the cost of living crisis.
As the Figure below shows, out of 11 reasons offered to people as to why the cost of living has become higher, the “UK trying to be more environmentally friendly” comes last, a long way behind increased global demand and price of energy, the conflict in Ukraine, Brexit and Covid-19.
Elsewhere in the report the authors write:
Voters thought that greener forms of energy were cheaper. Over half of the public (56%) and Conservative voters (53%) thought that investing in wind and solar would bring their energy bills down (vs a quarter who felt that investing less) in renewables would reduce living costs.
The message across these findings is clear: concerns about the cost of living are widely held, but green policies are not seen as the cause of the country’s current economic problems.
Centre-right think tank Onward (with Public First) explored Conservative voters’ attitudes towards a wide range of climate policies (some government policy, others not) in a report titled Hotting Up: How we get to net zero in a way that brings people with us
Three key takeaways are:
Voters expect ambition from the government alongside pragmatism
Support for climate action remains strong among voters, including 2019 Conservatives. The net zero by 2050 target enjoys strong support from the British public (56%) and 2019 Conservative voters (49%), far outweighing opposition (13% and 20% respectively). 43% of Conservative voters think tackling climate change is the most serious challenge facing the world, ahead of war (38%) and mass migration (38%).
Voters see shifts in net zero policy through the lens of ‘anti-politics’
The most common responses among the public if the Government was to get rid of the net zero target is that they would be worried about future generations (33%) and would consider the Conservatives to be untrustworthy (26%). With 2019 Conservative voters, the picture is more nuanced. The highest response was still that it would make them worried for future generations (28%).
Voters are cautious about costs of net zero, but optimistic about benefits
The Government should not mistake scepticism against single unfair policies for opposition to environmental policy in general. 53% of the public are willing to accept costs to tackle climate change, while 40% are not. Focus group participants were overwhelmingly negative about the ULEZ expansion to Greater London, which they saw as an unjust tax on the poor disguised as an environmental policy. Out of ten options given, net zero was the last to be blamed by the public (16%) for a higher tax burden.
The Labour Party has pledged to create Great British Energy, a new, publicly-owned clean energy company to make the UK ‘energy independent’ and deliver 100% clean energy by 2030.
