New public polling: Behind the noise on net zero

It’s been a particularly turbulent few weeks of media and political debate on net zero.

From Blair’s bombshell intervention, to hardened rhetoric from a Reform party fresh from local election gains, to further suggestions of a roll-back on net zero from senior Tories – it’s a fraught landscape of climate discourse right now.

In this context, it’s unsurprising that media commentators are unpacking how the political consensus has been “shattered”, or asking if the Labour government will “stick with or abandon” net zero.

With this in mind – as we launch new Climate Barometer tracker data – we ask “what’s behind the noise on net zero?”

Public support for net zero remains strong

Climate Barometer’s new polling has been covered in Business Green’s coverage of “The reverse Farage effect” in a piece discussing how attempts to polarise the climate debate have ‘not really borne fruit’.

Carried out in the run-up to the local elections, the polling shows the majority public support for climate action holds strong – despite all the noise around net zero. Two in three Britons (63%) still back the UK’s target of net zero by 2050.

This includes overwhelming support among those are intending to vote for Labour (91%) and the Lib Dems (82%) at the next election, and more than half of Conservative backers (54%). 

Those intending to vote Reform continue to be the clear outlier here, with only 32% supporting the net zero target, while 60% oppose it. They are also most sceptical of the statement that “it is essential to reach net zero in order to stop climate change”, with only 13% of Reform backers agreeing on this, even though this was the most commonly held view amongst the general public (41%). Labour and the Lib Dem backers were more likely to think net zero was “essential” to combat climate change (with 73% and 59% saying this respectively).

Confusion around what net zero means

Despite broad continuing support for the target, there is evidence of confusion around the meaning of net zero and its implications for the country, reflecting attacks in the media and political debates. For instance, Reform backers were the most likely to think net zero means “producing no carbon emissions at all” – with 41% believing this, almost double the number for the public overall (22%). 

Overall, there are clear gaps between groups here. While a majority of the public (53%) think net zero means “balancing the amount of carbon emissions going into the atmosphere by removing the same amount from the atmosphere” there were notable differences between voters – 71% of Labour backers thought this was correct, compared to just 36% intending to vote Reform. 

This sits alongside wider evidence showing that although awareness of the net zero target is very high (91%), understanding about the meaning of net zero is limited (only half of the public say they know ‘a lot’ or ‘a fair amount’ about it).

In the latest Climate Barometer tracker data, those intending to vote Reform were also much more likely to have “heard and agree with” the idea that that net zero can’t be achieved ‘without bankrupting the country’ (46% said this, compared to 19% of the public overall), or that ‘net zero is driving industrial decline’ (55% compared to for the 23% of the public overall). 

The confusion and misperceptions around ‘net zero’ here are no surprise in the context of ongoing attacks against net zero in recent months and years. While scepticism focusing on climate science has largely disappeared from the British media, attacks that focus on climate responses (i.e. net zero policies) have been prominent. 

Carbon Brief has shown that UK newspaper editorials attacked Ed Miliband and his net zero commitments more in the first four months of 2025, than was seen across the whole of 2024. Similarly, Desmog has evidenced that GB News broadcast almost 1,000 anti-climate attacks around the time of the 2024 general election. The channel’s audience strongly lean towards Reform or the Conservatives.

Behind the net zero noise is solid climate support

Despite this, when you look behind the noise and attacks against net zero, there is still solid and reliable support for climate measures.

Support for climate action and renewable energy remains high across the political spectrum, even when projects are proposed to be built in people’s local area.

And this aligns with broader public attitudes showing continued support for the substance of the net zero transition: Solar (79%), offshore wind (72%), and onshore wind (64%) continue to be viewed favourably, while coal, oil and gas are backed by only a minority.

Renewables are also viewed by the public overall as cheaper (38%, compared to 27% for coal, oil and gas), better for the country’s energy security (56% compared to 18%) and more popular (47% compared to 21%).

And while Reform backers remain outliers in their views on net zero, their support for renewable infrastructure is strong, even when it comes to local developments. 

Our polling shows that the majority of Reform supporters express a favourable view of solar power (68%), offshore wind (60%) and hydroelectric dams (57%). A majority of Reform backers also say they would support such infrastructure in their own areas — 55% for onshore wind farms, 58% for solar energy parks, while 51% support new pylons and power lines for carrying renewable energy.

This goes hand in hand with recent polling for ECIU, which showed that more than half (54%) of voters who planned to vote Reform in the local elections supported “policies to stop climate change and put in place targets accordingly to keep the UK on track”.

Together this suggests a disconnect between stable climate support and changing net zero opinion, especially when it comes to groups like Reform voters, who are more oppositional towards net zero. Such groups appear to take issue more with the distorted meanings, framings and narratives of net zero in the public debate, rather than the substance behind it. 

In other words, there appears to be a gap between resistance towards net zero, and support for its practical outcomes.

Support needs to be nurtured 

So, what is behind the ‘noise’ on net zero? The answer is: clear, reliable support for the substance of climate action. The broad goal of transitioning to cleaner energy continues to have public support across political divides.

But, at the same time, there is a disconnect between climate and net zero opinion, particularly for right-leaning voter groups. And the solid climate support behind net zero opinion can’t and shouldn’t be taken for granted either. In a volatile period like this, it needs to be shored up.

Given the high levels of public support for climate action, the Labour government has more to lose by switching to an anti-net zero, or less ambitious stance, on climate issues – as shown in recent analysis by Persuasion UK.

But net zero will continue to be attacked too, and in a backdrop of economic hardship, opposition narratives centring on the costs of the transition will continue. This means that factchecking what’s being said about costs, and highlighting the need for fairness will continue to be key. 

But while necessary, this alone is not sufficient.

Amidst the recent noise surrounding net zero, the “why” underpinning the need for climate action seems to have been increasingly absent, perhaps even forgotten. In their recent major speeches on net zero energy transition, for instance, Keir Starmer or Ed Milliband hardly referred to climate change. They drew on the need for greater energy security and independence – a narrative that can land well, but comes with risks, and is arguably distant from the pressing nature of climate impacts and people’s day-to-day lives.

Making the link is now crucial. The public need to believe in the tangible, positive differences net zero policies can bring in tackling the climate and nature crises. That means connecting the need for climate action with what matters most to people.

In Climate Barometer’s latest data, the most convincing arguments in support of net zero were that ‘we owe it to our children and grandchildren to take action’ (35%); the need to protect the ‘natural world’ and ‘wildlife’ from further climate damage (33%), and that if we don’t take action, the impacts already with us ‘will only get worse’ (32%). This is broadly consistent with our previous findings. And these messages performed well across the political spectrum, including with those intending to vote Reform – but they’re conspicuously absent from the current debate.

The ‘why’ for action, it seems, is the missing signal behind the noise right now.