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Since the earliest investigations into public opinion on climate change, it’s been clear that the public expect and want the government to take the lead on climate change.
Famously, the UK’s Climate Change Act was world-leading when it was first passed – and in 2019, the central target was upgraded from an 80% cut in emissions to net-zero emissions by 2050.
But although claims of political leadership have persisted – including around the UK’s hosting of the annual UN climate conference in Glasgow in 2021 – periodic assessments by the Climate Change Committee have in recent years highlighted a slowing of progress, and explicitly called for the UK to ‘regain its international political leadership’.
Set against historically low trust in politicians and widespread disengagement from the political system, people nonetheless consistently say that the government should be doing and spending more on climate change.
This thread brings together relevant opinion data around political leadership (from the public and MPs through our Climate Barometer tracker), set against key policy developments that help make sense of if, how and why opinion is changing.
Based on a set of interviews with 15 MPs, and a focus group with civil society representatives, new research – based on the findings of a collaboration between the Climate Citizens research group at Lancaster University, The Climate Coalition and the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations, and supported by Green Alliance – shows how the climate opinions of MPs have changed since 2018 when a previous round of research was carried out. The report states that:
MPs are now much more concerned about climate; for them, it’s become a mainstream issue, but they have specific concerns that were not so evident before, particularly around how to manage the complex process of change.
All the MPs interviewed stressed the importance of protecting people from potential negative impacts, such as higher costs or job losses in high carbon industries. They also fear a political backlash if climate action is seen as unfair.
The report shows how the political agenda has shifted over five years, from the need to ‘do something’ to the pace of change.
The mainstreaming of climate change in the political discourse over the past five years is important to recognise. But significant challenges remain in closing the gap between the political and the social mandate, with Climate Barometer tracker data showing that MPs continue to underestimate the salience of the environment among voters, to misjudge support for onshore wind, and to underestimate support for Net Zero (which outweighs opposition across society).
ACT Climate Labs have released a guide to rebutting the argument that there’s ‘no point’ in the UK reducing its emissions, when countries like China or India account for a higher proportion of global CO2.
Although this argument is prevalent among opponents of climate action, encouragingly Climate Barometer tracker data shows that only a minority of the public and MPs endorse it. Much larger numbers agree that the UK should be one of the most ambitious countries in the world on climate change regardless of what other countries are doing.
In its June 2023 progress report to parliament, the Climate Change Committee outlined how the UK government could regain a sense of leadership on climate change:
Stay firm on existing commitments and move to delivery. The Government has made a number of strong commitments, these must be restated and moved as swiftly as possible towards delivery.
Retake a clear leadership role internationally. The UK will need to regain its international climate leadership
Empower and inform households and communities to make low-carbon choices. Despite some positive steps to provide households with advice on reducing energy use in the last year, a coherent public engagement strategy on climate action is long overdue.
The Labour Climate & Environment Forum tested video clips of senior Labour figures, including Kier Starmer, talking about climate change. In findings that suggest there is space/an opportunity for a much clearer and bolder offer to voters on climate change, the authors report that:
Of people who saw Keir Starmer talking about climate, 53% said they intended to vote Labour compared to 47% who saw Starmer talking about a different issue and 45% who saw no video at all. Those who saw Starmer talking on climate were more likely to think that Labour is the best party on the economy by an increase in five and twelve percentage points compared with the no-climate video and no video respectively.
According to polling by Omnisis, less than a quarter of the UK public (24%) think Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is showing leadership on climate change, in the context of hesitation around attendance at COP27.
This stands in contrast with the desire held by most Britons for the UK to show climate leadership and be one of the most ambitious countries in the world on climate change.
The same survey found broad support for the government funding climate action in less wealthy nations overseas.
When asked “Does the UK have a responsibility to fund climate action in poorer nations now suffering from climate-related extreme weather disasters?”, 49% said yes, while 31% said no. 29% say they did not know.
This aligns with data from our Climate Barometer tracker, which shows high levels of support for wealthy nations providing compensation to poorer countries for damages caused by the climate crisis.
Research by Climate Outreach with Loyal Nationals around COP26 pointed to scepticism about whether global leaders could genuinely be trusted to cooperate. Patriotic Loyal Nationals have a high level of concern about climate change, but are distrustful of government, big business and major ‘multilateral’ political meetings like COPs.
Climate Outreach report that Loyal Nationals are cynical about whether UK leadership is achievable at COP26, and are sceptical that leaders can genuinely cooperate and represent their people, concluding that:
Engagement needs to counter the fact that many people do not understand what COP is about, and when they do they are often sceptical about what it could achieve, or believe it should be conducted online rather than in person.
In new research written up in a commentary for The Conversation, the risk of political leaders’ high carbon lifestyles could undermine the credibility of the messages they convey on climate change. Whilst the research focuses specifically on political leaders, the same arguments apply to a wide range of individuals and organisations who deliver climate messages (including the climate movement itself).
“The public fully understand political leaders have tight schedules and their activities inevitably involve plenty of high-carbon activities such as air travel.
But people are also very sensitive to the details of each specific situation and alert to signals and behavioural cues from leaders. Context is crucial.
If our leaders are not perceived as fully committed, will they be able to take the public with them as the need for behaviour change becomes more and more pressing?”
The majority of British people are unsure which party has the best climate policies, according to the Britain Talks Climate toolkit.
“Despite high levels of concern overall, the majority of segments are not engaging with climate change in terms of politics or policies. When asked which UK party they felt had the best climate change policies, the most frequent response from most segments was either “none of the above” or “don’t know”. Progressive Activists and Civic Pragmatists were exceptions, with the majority citing the Green Party as having the best climate policy.”
The ambiguity people feel about which political party has the best climate policies is an invitation to make a clearer offer to the electorate.
