What are perception gaps and why do they matter?

If you had to guess, what percentage of voters in Conservative constituencies would support a wind farm being built in their local area – even if it was right outside their window?

According to research by Public First for the Conservative Environment Network, 45% would ‘actively support’ or ‘not mind’ a wind farm that was visible from their window. If you’re surprised by that answer, then you’re not alone: Climate Barometer polling shows that people often don’t appreciate the scale of public support for climate action.

And the problem isn’t confined to the UK. A new global study shows that around the world, people “systematically underestimate the willingness of their fellow citizens to act”.

These discrepancies matter. If we don’t believe there’s a mandate for green policies, inertia slows the pace of the green transition. ‘Perception gaps’ like these have consequences.

What are perception gaps and why do they matter?

Perception gaps can emerge both as overestimations and underestimations. When people overestimate the extent of support for something, they may wrongly believe most other people share their own viewpoint, when really they don’t. But people might also underestimate the level of support for a viewpoint, or policy, and this can lead to serious problems.

A sense of fatalism can fester if people don’t think others care. Misplaced concerns about falling ‘outside the norm’ when taking action on climate issues (‘why bother if I’m in the minority?’) can take hold. And crucially, policy ambition can be watered down because politicians incorrectly ‘read’ voter sentiment.

Listening to the quiet majority 

There is consistent public support for local renewable projects. The public are positive towards the prospect of new solar parks and onshore wind farms being built in their area, with greater than 70% support for both.

However, MPs massively underestimate public support for local renewables, believing that only 20% are in favour of local onshore wind. What explains this disconnect?

The outsized influence of the commentary in (some) right-leaning media outlets certainly plays a role. A minority of motivated opponents with large media platforms and strong political networks can have a big influence on what seems ‘normal’ to MPs. They have the ears of politicians, even if they don’t represent majority views, and in 2023, a record number of anti-green editorials were published.

Wherever local infrastructure (energy or otherwise) is located, there are likely to be questions, concerns and objections. Sometimes, national campaigns whip up local sentiment into harder opposition on climate issues. But in most cases, the ‘quiet majority’ support local renewables, so long as their views are taken into account. Listening to this quiet majority is a critical component of the transition ahead.

Net zero weirdos?

Senior Conservative MP Lee Anderson argued recently that only “odd weirdos” care about net zero. The Ashfield MP claimed that “net zero never comes up” with voters on the doorstep, and that not many of his constituents “lie awake at night worrying about net zero”, and are instead worried about fuel bills.

Caring about net zero isn’t a niche concern, but – as with local renewables – both the public and MPs (from across the political spectrum) underestimate the level of public support.

Social science can explain some of what is going on here. The ‘weirdo’ narrative draws on the tendency of humans to see the world in terms of insiders and outsiders (‘us’ and ‘them’), marginalising and downplaying the ‘outsider’ view, which can in turn create a false social reality where Britons believe that people are more divided on net zero than is actually the case. And this matters, because when people do perceive that support for climate action is widespread, their personal support is more likely to be higher as well.

There’s some evidence that climate campaigners are the most likely group to underestimate net zero support. When shown a series of statements against action on net zero, the group most likely to select the message that ‘Net Zero is politically unfeasible because the public doesn’t support it’ were Progressive Activists.

So while perception gaps are a problem, closing them creates a virtuous circle. Continuing to emphasise that the majority of the public is behind net zero – not just ‘odd weirdos’ – remains a crucial message for campaigners as well as MPs and the wider public.