Uncategorized

In polling commissioned by the Press Association, ahead of COP28 in Dubai, Ipsos MORI asked people whether they thought the commitments made at the event would lead to climate action.

47% believed this was unlikely, whilst only 17% gave a more optimistic answer.

These finding reflect a sense of cynicism that was present before last year’s event in Egypt (which Rishi Sunak eventually attended, but was criticised for initially avoiding), and strikingly low levels of trust in politicians on climate issues.

To the extent that this level of detail registers with public audiences (the same IPSOS poll found only 32% will follow the news around COP28 closely this year, and 61% would not follow the event’s progress), the optics and contradictions of a city famous for its oil-wealth hosting the UN’s flagship climate event is also likely to be playing a role in muting public expectations about the credibility of the conference.

An online survey by the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) revealed that British people also did not think that reducing red meat consumption is a very effective climate solution, compared to other actions. 

When asked to pick which action (from a list of eight) would have the greatest impact on climate change if everybody in the country did it, ‘eat less red meat’ received the fewest number of votes (6-8%). 

Other actions on the list were: drive an electric car; minimise air travel; minimise home energy use; minimise food waste; reduce new purchases; use low-carbon heating; walk, cycle or use public transport.

When asked to pick their top three actions, only one-fifth of respondents picked the option about red meat.

Despite this, across the four years of survey data, up to two-thirds of respondents felt that people in the UK should ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ reduce red meat consumption to limit climate change (58-66%). 

A repeated survey run by the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) investigated which dietary changes British people intend to make to fight climate change. 

Across the waves of data between 2020-23, the most popular change was planning meals to reduce food waste – 74-81% of people said they were fairly or very likely to make the change. Buying locally produced food (61-65%) and eating fewer calories (42-46%) were also acceptable. 

While 43% of participants were willing to ‘eat less meat or meat products’, willingness was consistently lower when asked about adopting a vegetarian diet (19-27%), and lower still for a vegan diet (11-19%). 

Nevertheless, over half (55%) of people who responded felt it was their personal responsibility (alongside business and Government) to take actions to reduce the risk of climate change.

An online survey by the Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST) investigated how far British people support different policies to encourage sustainable diets. 

The policies were ranked as follows (from most to least popular, according to the percentage of respondents who supported the policy):

• Food labelling to show carbon emissions (58%).
• Making vegetarian and vegan options mandatory in restaurants and canteens (39%).
• Researching alternative meat sources such as lab grown meat (36%).
• Shifting subsidies from meat production to plant or grain agriculture (36%).
• Increasing price of meat products (32% in 2021, 23% in 2022 and 15% in 2023).

Polling by Public First for the Conservative Environment Network (CEN) was carried out in 19 Conservative-held seats in the summer of 2023. The seats were selected for their proximity to existing or proposed major renewable energy developments in the East of England and Oxfordshire.

While the majority would like to see green energy development and new housing in their local area, around a third of both Labour and Conservative voters chose renewable development over the building of new homes.

76% of those surveyed said the rollout of renewable energy so far had been too slow, and 45% would ‘actively support’ or ‘not mind’ a wind farm being built within sight of a window in their home.

The results underscore a growing body of evidence which shows – in national level polling, focus groups and constituency level polling – consistent support for building renewables. They stand in contrast to the perception held by Conservative MPs, which significantly overestimates the level of opposition among their own voters and the population more widely.

Read more about ‘perception gaps’ in our Climate Barometer topic thread.

Based on a survey of 2000 people, Public First have argued that a turn against net zero is a risky political maneuver: by testing different combinations of policy propositions with voters (on the environment and more widely) they found that green investment is one of the most universally popular offers across the electorate, and that whilst anti net-zero sentiment doesn’t move the dial much for those who agree it, for those who oppose it, its a significant vote loser. Public First reports that:

Increased investment in renewable sources and new taxes on the largest polluters in a wider policy platform makes a party 14% more electable

Delaying net zero and continued oil and gas drilling in the North Sea in a wider policy platform makes a party 10% less electable

Voters have genuine questions (and in some cases concerns) about how specific green policies will impact their personal finances and day-to-day lives. These questions should be taken seriously by campaigners and politicians alike to build public support.

But as an electoral strategy, this research shows that reducing net zero ambition, backing away from green investment, and failing to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels are vote losers, rather than winners.