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Following the General Election, there is a clear uptick in support for the country’s net zero targets. Support for net zero by 2050 is at its highest point in almost 2 years, yet enthusiasm for some flagship policies hasn’t yet caught up.
The first Climate Barometer public poll following the General Election shows a clear uptick in support for the country’s net zero targets: support for net zero by 2050 is at its highest point in almost 2 years.
These figures were reported by the Independent, in a story that noted “despite the previous government watering down climate measures, such as bringing in electric cars and banning gas boilers, support for net zero also increased among Conservative voters.”
Strikingly, the rise in support for net zero among Conservative voters was the biggest leap – from 59% of 2019 Tory voters in April to 76% of 2024 Tory voters in July. While this may partly be due to changes in the population who voted Conservative in the July election (in which more right-leaning voters switched to Reform), it isn’t the full story. Both those who voted Conservative in 2019, and those who voted Conservative in 2024 show higher support for net zero now (65% and 76% respectively) than in April.
2024 Labour (85%) and Lib Dem voters (89%) are even more supportive. Only Reform voters reported lower support (44%).
But although 2024 Reform voters may currently be less supportive of net zero goals, those who switched from Conservative to Reform at the General Election did not make their decision on the basis of Reform UK’s net zero policies: only 5% of Conservative-Reform switchers mentioned Reform’s climate and environment policies as a reason for their support of the party.
The uptick is encouraging, and the rise among Conservative voters suggests the public isn’t polarised on the pursuit of net zero. But what sits behind these headline findings on net zero targets? Where is the public on the specifics of the energy transition?
Heat pumps
Reported knowledge about heat pumps continues to be low.
Although some have seen heat pumps in the news (41%), most don’t know what they look like (51%), how they work (65%), or know anyone who has one (71%). Around half have not heard about government subsidies for installing them.
Given this low knowledge base – including about important benefits such as subsidies – the picture in terms of public support is reasonably positive, with support remaining relatively stable and if anything, ticking up over time.
And with such a low baseline of knowledge, better public engagement could make all the difference in terms of conveying their benefits (beyond financial incentives).
Electric vehicles
At first glance, the picture isn’t quite as positive around the phase out of sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles, but the devil’s in the detail.
The figure above shows a rise in opposition to the petrol/diesel phase out over time (with support remaining relatively flat, and the number of people who don’t know what they think declining). But when it comes to EVs, misconceptions abound.
We tested a range of ‘anti-net zero’ narratives and soundbites, and found very few of them currently have any cut through with the public. But there was one exception: 40% of people say they don’t think EVs are more environmentally friendly than cars (when in fact they are).
And this isn’t the only misconception about EVs.
Previous Climate Barometer polling showed that when people are reminded that only new vehicles (not second hand ones) will be phased out after 2030, there was a 9% increase in people saying that the phase out would not affect them at all.
And in the latest polling, support for the phasing out of petrol and diesel cars is higher (+5%), and opposition is lower (-6%) when people were reminded that it is only new vehicle sales which must be zero emissions by 2030 (39% support, 38% oppose), compared to support without the prompt about second-hand vehicles (34% support, 44% oppose), a statistically significant difference.
So as with heat pumps, there’s an obvious gap where much bolder and proactive public engagement could be.
Support for net zero by 2050 is rising, but enthusiasm for some flagship policies hasn’t yet caught up. This is a clear signal that campaigning and public engagement on the practical delivery of net zero is now a priority. Otherwise, misconceptions and in some cases simply a lack of familiarity with net zero policies, become fodder for opponents of green policies.
While changes are being made to the Energy Companies Obligation and the Warm Homes Plan, our latest tracker poll shows that the majority (69%) of the public support government incentives for homeowners to improve home insulation. This support carries across voting lines, with even supporters of Reform, who are typically the least supportive of climate related policies, indicating majority approval (56% support).
The majority of the public are also supportive of financial support to low income families for green home upgrades. Not only is this a crucial aspect needed for a fair transition to clean energy, the relative consensus among the public is a rare opportunity.
The number of people who agree ‘there is no such thing as climate change’ remains marginal: only 2% agreed with this statement in the latest opinion tracker from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero.
It’s important – in a period of political instability and the fracturing of the climate consensus – to remind ourselves that despite the turbulence, outright denial of climate change is almost non-existent.
And most people (49% vs 22%) recognise that the energy transition will be positive for the country in the long-term.
But (backing up a signal that is getting louder by the day) the DESNZ data shows that concerns about the costs of green policies are growing, with a record high of people who think the economic consequences of the country’s transition to Net Zero will be negative in the short-term.
Labour has promised to reduce energy bills by £300 a year, and (long-term) the policies being introduced will likely deliver this. But short-term, the financial insecurities that people face (which have little to do with green policies) are being weaponised by opponents of climate action.
Whilst this happens, making the best case for what is currently on the table is equally critical: this requires connecting the ‘how’ and the ‘why’ of net zero alongside telling people’s stories to demonstrate that the transition is both achievable and effective. Read more about the takeaways from Climate Barometer & Public First’s recent net zero message testing research here.
Missing Links: Connecting the ‘how’ and the ‘why’ in net zero engagement
“How can you connect the compelling reasons for action with net zero as a policy framework?” A new nationally representative message testing study explores this question, in collaboration with Public First and ECF.