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Following the General Election, there is a clear uptick in support for the country’s net zero targets. Support for net zero by 2050 is at its highest point in almost 2 years, yet enthusiasm for some flagship policies hasn’t yet caught up.
The first Climate Barometer public poll following the General Election shows a clear uptick in support for the country’s net zero targets: support for net zero by 2050 is at its highest point in almost 2 years.
These figures were reported by the Independent, in a story that noted “despite the previous government watering down climate measures, such as bringing in electric cars and banning gas boilers, support for net zero also increased among Conservative voters.”
Strikingly, the rise in support for net zero among Conservative voters was the biggest leap – from 59% of 2019 Tory voters in April to 76% of 2024 Tory voters in July. While this may partly be due to changes in the population who voted Conservative in the July election (in which more right-leaning voters switched to Reform), it isn’t the full story. Both those who voted Conservative in 2019, and those who voted Conservative in 2024 show higher support for net zero now (65% and 76% respectively) than in April.
2024 Labour (85%) and Lib Dem voters (89%) are even more supportive. Only Reform voters reported lower support (44%).
But although 2024 Reform voters may currently be less supportive of net zero goals, those who switched from Conservative to Reform at the General Election did not make their decision on the basis of Reform UK’s net zero policies: only 5% of Conservative-Reform switchers mentioned Reform’s climate and environment policies as a reason for their support of the party.
The uptick is encouraging, and the rise among Conservative voters suggests the public isn’t polarised on the pursuit of net zero. But what sits behind these headline findings on net zero targets? Where is the public on the specifics of the energy transition?
Heat pumps
Reported knowledge about heat pumps continues to be low.
Although some have seen heat pumps in the news (41%), most don’t know what they look like (51%), how they work (65%), or know anyone who has one (71%). Around half have not heard about government subsidies for installing them.
Given this low knowledge base – including about important benefits such as subsidies – the picture in terms of public support is reasonably positive, with support remaining relatively stable and if anything, ticking up over time.
And with such a low baseline of knowledge, better public engagement could make all the difference in terms of conveying their benefits (beyond financial incentives).
Electric vehicles
At first glance, the picture isn’t quite as positive around the phase out of sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles, but the devil’s in the detail.
The figure above shows a rise in opposition to the petrol/diesel phase out over time (with support remaining relatively flat, and the number of people who don’t know what they think declining). But when it comes to EVs, misconceptions abound.
We tested a range of ‘anti-net zero’ narratives and soundbites, and found very few of them currently have any cut through with the public. But there was one exception: 40% of people say they don’t think EVs are more environmentally friendly than cars (when in fact they are).
And this isn’t the only misconception about EVs.
Previous Climate Barometer polling showed that when people are reminded that only new vehicles (not second hand ones) will be phased out after 2030, there was a 9% increase in people saying that the phase out would not affect them at all.
And in the latest polling, support for the phasing out of petrol and diesel cars is higher (+5%), and opposition is lower (-6%) when people were reminded that it is only new vehicle sales which must be zero emissions by 2030 (39% support, 38% oppose), compared to support without the prompt about second-hand vehicles (34% support, 44% oppose), a statistically significant difference.
So as with heat pumps, there’s an obvious gap where much bolder and proactive public engagement could be.
Support for net zero by 2050 is rising, but enthusiasm for some flagship policies hasn’t yet caught up. This is a clear signal that campaigning and public engagement on the practical delivery of net zero is now a priority. Otherwise, misconceptions and in some cases simply a lack of familiarity with net zero policies, become fodder for opponents of green policies.
The new Labour government has brought its plans for a publicly owned energy company, Great British Energy, to parliament.
The Great British Energy Bill was formally introduced to the House of Commons on the 25th of July, and the bill is expected to pass through its second stage in early September.
Following a long-standing commitment to base the energy company in Scotland, Labour have since announced GB Energy will be headquartered in Aberdeen.
Labour won a large majority in the 2024 General Election, increasing the number of Labour MPs in Parliament to 412. The Labour win was delivered on an historically low turnout, and via a small rise in Labour’s vote share compared to 2019.
The result ushers in a government that will be (relatively) bolder on climate and net zero policy, compared to the outgoing Conservative government, who sustained their worst ever electoral defeat. Parliament now has a number of new pro-climate MPs, not only in Labour but in the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party (both of which saw surges in their vote share). Reform UK, the only party standing on an anti-net zero ticket, also saw a surge in support.
What do MPs need to know about voters’ views on climate?
In the wake of the 2024 General Election results, what do MPs need to bear in mind in terms of voters’ climate opinions?