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Since the earliest investigations into public opinion on climate change, it’s been clear that the public expect and want the government to take the lead on climate change.
Famously, the UK’s Climate Change Act was world-leading when it was first passed – and in 2019, the central target was upgraded from an 80% cut in emissions to net-zero emissions by 2050.
But although claims of political leadership have persisted – including around the UK’s hosting of the annual UN climate conference in Glasgow in 2021 – periodic assessments by the Climate Change Committee have in recent years highlighted a slowing of progress, and explicitly called for the UK to ‘regain its international political leadership’.
Set against historically low trust in politicians and widespread disengagement from the political system, people nonetheless consistently say that the government should be doing and spending more on climate change.
This thread brings together relevant opinion data around political leadership (from the public and MPs through our Climate Barometer tracker), set against key policy developments that help make sense of if, how and why opinion is changing.
Commentary & Analysis
27th November 2023
There isn’t much trust or pride in political leaders, but the public expects political leadership on climate change nonetheless.
Commentary & Analysis
23rd November 2023
Knowledge of COPs is limited, and there is scepticism about whether the promises made at international meetings are being kept – but voters still want and expect to see British climate leadership on the world stage.
The Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s 2023 autumn statement was presented as a plan for growing the UK economy, and addressing cost of living pressures through tax cuts and other measures.
Analysis carried out by Carbon Brief found that Hunt used climate-related keywords less in his latest speech than in his first autumn statement in 2022, or in the spring statement earlier this year, and that he did not specifically mention “climate” at all.
The graph tells a story of the prominence and salience of climate change set against economic considerations at different moments in the past decade-and-a-half.
Carbon Brief has produced an interactive table of ‘who wants what’ from the COP28 UN climate change negotiations, searchable by topic and across different negotiating groups.
In polling commissioned by the Press Association, ahead of COP28 in Dubai, Ipsos MORI asked people whether they thought the commitments made at the event would lead to climate action.
47% believed this was unlikely, whilst only 17% gave a more optimistic answer.
These finding reflect a sense of cynicism that was present before last year’s event in Egypt (which Rishi Sunak eventually attended, but was criticised for initially avoiding), and strikingly low levels of trust in politicians on climate issues.
To the extent that this level of detail registers with public audiences (the same IPSOS poll found only 32% will follow the news around COP28 closely this year, and 61% would not follow the event’s progress), the optics and contradictions of a city famous for its oil-wealth hosting the UN’s flagship climate event is also likely to be playing a role in muting public expectations about the credibility of the conference.
Writing for Labour List, More in Common’s Luke Tryl sets out why there is a chance to increase support among crucial ‘Red Wall’ voters (represented by the Loyal Nationals audience in More in Common’s Britain’s Choice model), arguing that:
Perhaps the area with the greatest potential lies in Labour’s green prosperity plan. Public support for the plan is high at 57%, rising to 61% among loyal national voters and a mammoth 84% among the group of voters who opted for the Conservatives in 2019 but who are now voting Labour.
Coupled with Public First polling showing that delaying net zero whilst failing to tax oil and gas companies is a vote loser, there is clearly a space for making a bolder, fair pitch to the electorate on green policies: consistent political leadership is an essential piece of the puzzle for building public support for the specifics of the transition.
Based on a survey of 2000 people, Public First have argued that a turn against net zero is a risky political maneuver: by testing different combinations of policy propositions with voters (on the environment and more widely) they found that green investment is one of the most universally popular offers across the electorate, and that whilst anti net-zero sentiment doesn’t move the dial much for those who agree it, for those who oppose it, its a significant vote loser. Public First reports that:
Increased investment in renewable sources and new taxes on the largest polluters in a wider policy platform makes a party 14% more electable
Delaying net zero and continued oil and gas drilling in the North Sea in a wider policy platform makes a party 10% less electable
Voters have genuine questions (and in some cases concerns) about how specific green policies will impact their personal finances and day-to-day lives. These questions should be taken seriously by campaigners and politicians alike to build public support.
But as an electoral strategy, this research shows that reducing net zero ambition, backing away from green investment, and failing to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels are vote losers, rather than winners.
In a survey of 20,000 people, and using the MRP method which allows conclusions to be drawn about specific political constituencies, Greenpeace found that of those who had an opinion, more than two thirds (70%) stated that climate and environment policies are important and will influence how they vote in the next election. For voters in Blue Wall seats, the study found:
more than four in five of constituents who had an opinion want the government to provide more financial support to insulate homes and 73% want more government funding for heat pumps. They also want to see more government investment for renewable power (88%) and subsidised rail travel to ensure it is always cheaper than driving (79%).
COP28 calls for “transition away from fossil fuels”. Does the UK public agree?
Where does UK public opinion sit on support for phasing out fossil fuels in the UK?