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Scotland has a net zero policy framework that is more ambitious than the UK’s overall targets.
Polling by PanelBase (commissioned by The Times) found Scottish public opinion on delaying the phase out of gas boilers and the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles was broadly in line with wider UK patterns, with support for delaying current heating targets slightly higher (45%) than opposition (38%), and support for delaying the petrol/diesel vehicle phase out date higher (51%) than opposition (38%).
The wording of the question participants were asked on gas boilers was, however, misleading, with people asked if they supported or opposed “Rishi Sunak’s decision to scrap the phasing out of gas boilers?”
The policy has not been scrapped – the phase out date has been extended.
Combined with the ‘scrapping’ of policies that did not in fact exist in Sunak’s September speech (e.g. a ‘meat tax’), there’s a pattern of using terms like ‘ban’ ‘scrap’ and ‘phase out’ interchangeably in a way that’s likely to mislead voters, and in this case potentially skew assessments of public opinion.
Climate Barometer tracker data provides a clear signal over time on key net zero policies like the phasing out of petrol/diesel vehicles and gas boilers.
A wide-ranging analysis from the centre for Climate Change & Social Transformations (CAST) on behalf of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) reveals that substantial behaviour change is required across society to reach the UK’s ambitious net-zero 2050 target, with 60% of reductions needing to come from (or at least be endorsed by) consumers
In a series of recommendations for mainstreaming behaviour change approaches as part of the UK’s approach to climate policy, the report argues that:
The provision of information is important in some circumstances – for example for young people choosing a green career – and can provide a rationale for wider policy interventions. But the provision of information alone is not enough to shift consumption behaviours in society
Climate policies which are perceived to be fair are more likely to be acceptable to the public.
The public largely support a reduction in the consumption of red meat and dairy, with many already reducing their consumption of beef, pork and dairy products…altering the food environment, for example by taxing high-carbon foods, labelling, subsidising meat-free options, and increasing plant-based options, would be likely to encourage further (and more equitable) behaviour change
Many of those who fly are reluctant to reduce their air travel because of its associations with pleasure, freedom, and social status (although recent studies suggest social norms around flying may be shifting). Strategies targeting individuals, such as increasing climate awareness or concern don’t typically result in behaviour change when it comes to air travel.
However, a Frequent Flyer Levy or Frequent Air Miles Tax have the potential to be effective in reducing aviation demand and to be perceived as fair by the public.
YouGov polling in October 2023 (during the Labour Party conference) shows more support (50%) than opposition (31%) for decarbonising the electricity supply by 2030. Among Conservative party voters, the balance of support-opposition is reversed.
Whilst this level of support is lower than that generally seen for renewables (which is typically more than 70%), the 2030 target is a policy goal that some industry figures consider ambitious and will require – as analysis by Public First into the infrastructure required to decarbonise the grid has shown – ‘hitting the ground running’ if Labour takes power at the next election.
Public First and Onward tested the support of 24 policies which would cut greenhouse gas emissions (some were existing government policies and some were not). All 24 received net-positive ratings looking across all voters, with energy efficiency measures, ramping up renewables (wind and solar), incentivising green home upgrades, planting trees, investment in public transport, and policies to help people switch to electric cars all proving highly popular.
Conservative voters currently did not support the phasing out of sales of new petrol/diesel cars by 2030 or gas boilers by 2035, but the report argues that:
Importantly, opposition is to targets and deadlines rather than the technologies
Understanding which net zero policies are consistently popular among the electorate is as important as understanding what the current barriers to support are for less popular policies: ‘win win’ ideas such as incentivising home upgrades/rolling out insulation are a way to hold the net zero conversation with voters on less contentious ground than, for example, low traffic neighbourhoods.
Polling by Public First and analysed by Onward, paints an important picture of how the public thinks about green policies in the context of the cost of living crisis.
As the Figure below shows, out of 11 reasons offered to people as to why the cost of living has become higher, the “UK trying to be more environmentally friendly” comes last, a long way behind increased global demand and price of energy, the conflict in Ukraine, Brexit and Covid-19.
Elsewhere in the report the authors write:
Voters thought that greener forms of energy were cheaper. Over half of the public (56%) and Conservative voters (53%) thought that investing in wind and solar would bring their energy bills down (vs a quarter who felt that investing less) in renewables would reduce living costs.
The message across these findings is clear: concerns about the cost of living are widely held, but green policies are not seen as the cause of the country’s current economic problems.
Centre-right think tank Onward (with Public First) explored Conservative voters’ attitudes towards a wide range of climate policies (some government policy, others not) in a report titled Hotting Up: How we get to net zero in a way that brings people with us
Three key takeaways are:
Voters expect ambition from the government alongside pragmatism
Support for climate action remains strong among voters, including 2019 Conservatives. The net zero by 2050 target enjoys strong support from the British public (56%) and 2019 Conservative voters (49%), far outweighing opposition (13% and 20% respectively). 43% of Conservative voters think tackling climate change is the most serious challenge facing the world, ahead of war (38%) and mass migration (38%).
Voters see shifts in net zero policy through the lens of ‘anti-politics’
The most common responses among the public if the Government was to get rid of the net zero target is that they would be worried about future generations (33%) and would consider the Conservatives to be untrustworthy (26%). With 2019 Conservative voters, the picture is more nuanced. The highest response was still that it would make them worried for future generations (28%).
Voters are cautious about costs of net zero, but optimistic about benefits
The Government should not mistake scepticism against single unfair policies for opposition to environmental policy in general. 53% of the public are willing to accept costs to tackle climate change, while 40% are not. Focus group participants were overwhelmingly negative about the ULEZ expansion to Greater London, which they saw as an unjust tax on the poor disguised as an environmental policy. Out of ten options given, net zero was the last to be blamed by the public (16%) for a higher tax burden.
In research carried out just before Rishi Sunak’s speech announcing changes to the UK’s net zero targets in September 2023 (including a 4,000 sample, nationally-representative poll and eight focus groups of 2019 Conservative voters who are now undecided), Public First’s James Frayne argues that Sunak’s speech will have a maginally negative impact on overall support for the Conservatives. Read Frayne’s analysis here:
Sunak’s Net Zero speech may scarcely cut through to voters at all outside the bubble
Underscoring the message that people are not opposed to net zero policies, but do not consider themselves in a position to foot the bill for them, Greenpeace polling of 20,000 voters found that in Blue Wall constituencies:
Taken together, these results suggest a strong appetite for a range of climate policies, so long as the right people (the wealthiest individuals and oil & gas companies) pick up the tab
Voters in all of More in Common’s Britain’s Choice segments (including the more socially conservative segments) are more likely to say the Government is doing too little, rather than not enough, according to polling by in August 2023.
Whilst delays to some near-term net zero policies are being considered by the government following the unexpected ‘hold’ by the Conservatives in the Uxbridge by-election in July (where opposition to the expansion of the ULEZ scheme was assumed to have played a role), this data from More in Common underscores the limited political capital to be made from rowing back on net zero.
Commentary & Analysis
18th September 2023
Author of the research Matthew Goodwin describes net zero as “a pet project among an out-of-touch, morally righteous and self-serving elite.”
Commentary & Analysis
18th December 2022
A generally popular policy proposal – which seems to have fairness hardwired into it – there is nonetheless confusion around who would be affected by a frequent flyer levy, pointing to a need for clearer communication.
In a wide-ranging and in-depth analysis of how the UK public views low-carbon lifestyle changes, in the context of reaching net zero, the CAST centre (Climate Change & Social Transformations) reported on a set of ‘deliberative’ workshops (discussion groups) with members of the public.
The workshops covered four topics: ‘how we heat our homes’, ‘the food we eat’, ‘the products we buy’ and ‘how we travel’.
In contrast to the snap polling that is commissioned in the wake of policy announcements, this approach to understanding public opinion provides participants with the chance to discuss, reflect on and consider the nuances of behavioural changes in the context of net zero.
Summaries for each of the four topics above are presented in the report. In contrast to media commentary and political strategy positioning climate behaviours as part of the ‘culture wars’, one overall conclusion was that personal choices and freedoms are important, but people are willing to engage in low-carbon lifestyles in a way that is proportionate to their own circusmstances:
“Personal choice and freedoms are important aspects underpinning public preferences. In many cases people preferred options that made environmental choices easier rather than restricting choice. Strong negative reactions were only noticeable for strategies which were perceived to take away choice completely, such as meat-free diets, no access to individual car ownership, or living in smaller homes. While these more ‘radical’ strategies do not enjoy high public acceptance, people are willing to consider the principles that underpin them, especially if supported by other actors. For example, most participants were unwilling to consider becoming vegetarian or vegan, but were willing to consider how they could reduce their meat intake. Similarly, living car free was not considered acceptable or feasible by most participants, however they did want to reduce their dependence on cars generally and were open to other modes of transport.”
Ahead of hosting the UN climate change conference (COP26) the UK government has released a length net zero strategy, which includes new oil and gas licensing in the North Sea, so long as they pass a ‘climate compatible’ check point.
Comment: What do the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections tell us about support for climate policies?
The Uxbridge by-election in July 2023 was not the start of a culture war on climate. But October 2023’s by-elections can’t be read as a ringing endorsement of climate policies across the board.