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The UK has legally binding commitments to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
From the phase out of new petrol and diesel cars (and phase in of electric vehicles), to the installation of heat pumps and retrofitting of insulation, reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 requires ongoing public support and a broad political mandate.
But in recent years the broad political consensus on net zero has broken down, as volatile energy markets linked to global conflicts have placed a new emphasis on energy security.
In this context, the public’s support for renewable energy has remained strong over recent years, while support for net zero by 2050 has plateaued, not plummeted. And at the local level, communities tend to support renewable infrastructure being built nearby ‘in principle’ – but are clear that criteria like participation, consent, environmental protection and community benefits are necessary precursors.
With all this in mind, how is opinion on energy and net zero changing in the UK?
Desmog reviewed more than 2,000 Telegraph opinion pieces and editorials published online over a six month period, ending in 16 October.
The website reported that of 171 opinion pieces that dealt with environmental issues, 85 percent were identified as “anti-green”, meaning they were attacking climate policy, questioning climate science or ridiculing environmental groups.
The chart below shows the number of daily anti-green op-eds reached a peak around the Uxbridge by-election in July, as the debate around clean air zones reached a crescendo.
Although there isn’t a straightforward ’cause and effect’ relationship between media commentary and public opinion, this volume of coverage provides a loud drumbeat of anti-green commentary to Conservative MPs in particular (more than half say they read the Telegraph regularly), which is likely to be influencing the views they infer their constituents have on a range of green policies.
We see this clearly in the ‘perception gap‘ MPs have on onshore wind, but increasingly on clean air zones and other green policies too, where opposition among the public is significantly overestimated.
In the Chancellor Jeremy Hunnt’s Autumn Statement, it was confirmed that households living near proposed new electricity transmission infrastructure (i.e. the pylons and power lines required to transmit electricity from offshore wind and other renewable sources, to households) would be offered discounts on their electricity bills. The Chancellor said:
‘Following consultation earlier this year, we confirm that we are currently minded to provide both an electricity bill discount for properties located closest to transmission network infrastructure and a wider community benefit. The wider community benefit will be co-developed by the project developer and local community to best reflect community preferences. Our response to the consultation has been published alongside this document. We intend to publish guidance on wider community benefits in 2024. This guidance will be voluntary whilst we explore options for a mandatory approach. We will provide further information on the overall community benefits policy, including bill discounts and options for developing a mandatory approach, in 2024.’
Commentary & Analysis
22nd November 2023
Renewables have long been far more popular among the public than any form of fossil fuel (coal, oil or gas). But the public’s relationship with fossil fuels, and how far and how fast to phase them out as part of the green transition, takes a bit of unpicking.
Commentary & Analysis
14th November 2023
There were bumps on the road to net zero in 2023. But did the delays and diversions reflect growing public doubts or political dividing lines?
Polling by Public First for the Conservative Environment Network (CEN) was carried out in 19 Conservative-held seats in the summer of 2023. The seats were selected for their proximity to existing or proposed major renewable energy developments in the East of England and Oxfordshire.
While the majority would like to see green energy development and new housing in their local area, around a third of both Labour and Conservative voters chose renewable development over the building of new homes.
76% of those surveyed said the rollout of renewable energy so far had been too slow, and 45% would ‘actively support’ or ‘not mind’ a wind farm being built within sight of a window in their home.
The results underscore a growing body of evidence which shows – in national level polling, focus groups and constituency level polling – consistent support for building renewables. They stand in contrast to the perception held by Conservative MPs, which significantly overestimates the level of opposition among their own voters and the population more widely.
Read more about ‘perception gaps’ in our Climate Barometer topic thread.
Based on a survey of 2000 people, Public First have argued that a turn against net zero is a risky political maneuver: by testing different combinations of policy propositions with voters (on the environment and more widely) they found that green investment is one of the most universally popular offers across the electorate, and that whilst anti net-zero sentiment doesn’t move the dial much for those who agree it, for those who oppose it, its a significant vote loser. Public First reports that:
Increased investment in renewable sources and new taxes on the largest polluters in a wider policy platform makes a party 14% more electable
Delaying net zero and continued oil and gas drilling in the North Sea in a wider policy platform makes a party 10% less electable
Voters have genuine questions (and in some cases concerns) about how specific green policies will impact their personal finances and day-to-day lives. These questions should be taken seriously by campaigners and politicians alike to build public support.
But as an electoral strategy, this research shows that reducing net zero ambition, backing away from green investment, and failing to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels are vote losers, rather than winners.
In July 2023, the Uxbridge by-election was – rightly or wrongly – interpreted as indicating there was appetite among voters for anti net-zero sentiment and rhetoric. Whilst some of the measures Rishi Sunak subsequently announced in September 2023 – slowing down the phase out of gas boilers and petrol/diesel vehicles – received a positive reaction from Conservative voters in polling, there was no obvious gain in political capital.
The heavy losses incurred by the Conservatives in two subsequent October 2023 by-elections are being read by some political commentators as a sign that the anti net zero push didn’t bring voters flocking back to the party.
Sam Hall, the Director of the Conservative Environment Network (CEN), argued that Sunak is ‘gambling with his party’s hard won green credentials’.
Read the Climate Barometer’s analysis of what the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections do – and don’t – tell us about public opinion on climate policies.
Commentary & Analysis
23rd October 2023
Stories of local opposition to renewable energy projects are very recognisable narratives – the idea of ‘not in my backyard’ is one that drives the discourse around many community initiatives. But it doesn’t always stand up to scrutiny, and misperceptions around public opinion abound.
Making sense of public and MP opinion on renewables
Renewables are consistently popular, including locally – but the concept of NIMBY-ism (Not In My Back Yard) looms so large in the British psyche that the public (and even more so MPs) consistently overestimate the prevalence of people who oppose renewable technologies like onshore wind and solar being built in their area.