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Polling by Public First for the Conservative Environment Network (CEN) was carried out in 19 Conservative-held seats in the summer of 2023. The seats were selected for their proximity to existing or proposed major renewable energy developments in the East of England and Oxfordshire.
While the majority would like to see green energy development and new housing in their local area, around a third of both Labour and Conservative voters chose renewable development over the building of new homes.
76% of those surveyed said the rollout of renewable energy so far had been too slow, and 45% would ‘actively support’ or ‘not mind’ a wind farm being built within sight of a window in their home.
The results underscore a growing body of evidence which shows – in national level polling, focus groups and constituency level polling – consistent support for building renewables. They stand in contrast to the perception held by Conservative MPs, which significantly overestimates the level of opposition among their own voters and the population more widely.
Read more about ‘perception gaps’ in our Climate Barometer topic thread.
Based on a survey of 2000 people, Public First have argued that a turn against net zero is a risky political maneuver: by testing different combinations of policy propositions with voters (on the environment and more widely) they found that green investment is one of the most universally popular offers across the electorate, and that whilst anti net-zero sentiment doesn’t move the dial much for those who agree it, for those who oppose it, its a significant vote loser. Public First reports that:
Increased investment in renewable sources and new taxes on the largest polluters in a wider policy platform makes a party 14% more electable
Delaying net zero and continued oil and gas drilling in the North Sea in a wider policy platform makes a party 10% less electable
Voters have genuine questions (and in some cases concerns) about how specific green policies will impact their personal finances and day-to-day lives. These questions should be taken seriously by campaigners and politicians alike to build public support.
But as an electoral strategy, this research shows that reducing net zero ambition, backing away from green investment, and failing to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels are vote losers, rather than winners.
In July 2023, the Uxbridge by-election was – rightly or wrongly – interpreted as indicating there was appetite among voters for anti net-zero sentiment and rhetoric. Whilst some of the measures Rishi Sunak subsequently announced in September 2023 – slowing down the phase out of gas boilers and petrol/diesel vehicles – received a positive reaction from Conservative voters in polling, there was no obvious gain in political capital.
The heavy losses incurred by the Conservatives in two subsequent October 2023 by-elections are being read by some political commentators as a sign that the anti net zero push didn’t bring voters flocking back to the party.
Sam Hall, the Director of the Conservative Environment Network (CEN), argued that Sunak is ‘gambling with his party’s hard won green credentials’.
Read the Climate Barometer’s analysis of what the Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire by-elections do – and don’t – tell us about public opinion on climate policies.
Commentary & Analysis
23rd October 2023
Stories of local opposition to renewable energy projects are very recognisable narratives – the idea of ‘not in my backyard’ is one that drives the discourse around many community initiatives. But it doesn’t always stand up to scrutiny, and misperceptions around public opinion abound.
As part of relaxing planning rules around onshore wind developments, communities near wind farms will be offered incentives of £300
Climate Barometer tracker data shows that onshore wind is a highly popular energy source, including a willingness to live near to a wind farm. However, public opinion has been misrepresented by Conservative MPs who significantly underestimate public support.
Scotland has a net zero policy framework that is more ambitious than the UK’s overall targets.
Polling by PanelBase (commissioned by The Times) found Scottish public opinion on delaying the phase out of gas boilers and the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles was broadly in line with wider UK patterns, with support for delaying current heating targets slightly higher (45%) than opposition (38%), and support for delaying the petrol/diesel vehicle phase out date higher (51%) than opposition (38%).
The wording of the question participants were asked on gas boilers was, however, misleading, with people asked if they supported or opposed “Rishi Sunak’s decision to scrap the phasing out of gas boilers?”
The policy has not been scrapped – the phase out date has been extended.
Combined with the ‘scrapping’ of policies that did not in fact exist in Sunak’s September speech (e.g. a ‘meat tax’), there’s a pattern of using terms like ‘ban’ ‘scrap’ and ‘phase out’ interchangeably in a way that’s likely to mislead voters, and in this case potentially skew assessments of public opinion.
Climate Barometer tracker data provides a clear signal over time on key net zero policies like the phasing out of petrol/diesel vehicles and gas boilers.
In a straightforward rejection of the central claim behind the government’s announcements in September 2023 of delays to key net zero targets – that the changes would save households money – the Climate Change Committee issued a response emphasising that the changes would in fact make net zero harder to achieve, as well as be more costly. Explore the Climate Barometer narrative thread on climate policies, public opinion and the costs of living here.
The Climate Change Committee wrote:
The cancellation of some Net Zero measures is likely to increase both energy bills and motoring costs for households – households who are also facing increasing impacts from climate change. Electric vehicles will be significantly cheaper than petrol and diesel vehicles to own and operate over their lifetimes, so any undermining of their roll-out will ultimately increase costs. The cancellation of regulations on the private-rented sector will lead to higher household energy bills
YouGov polling in October 2023 (during the Labour Party conference) shows more support (50%) than opposition (31%) for decarbonising the electricity supply by 2030. Among Conservative party voters, the balance of support-opposition is reversed.
Whilst this level of support is lower than that generally seen for renewables (which is typically more than 70%), the 2030 target is a policy goal that some industry figures consider ambitious and will require – as analysis by Public First into the infrastructure required to decarbonise the grid has shown – ‘hitting the ground running’ if Labour takes power at the next election.
Public First conducted a poll between 27 September and 2 October 2022 with a sample of 2,000 British adults, and ran four focus groups. They found:
Comment: Bumps on the road to net zero in 2023
There were bumps on the road to net zero in 2023. But did the delays and diversions reflect growing public doubts or political dividing lines?